A study of aflatoxin occurrence in Serbian maize confirms that the contamination detected in the 2012 maize harvest resulted from that year’s prolonged warm weather and extreme drought conditions.19


Video: Nitrate Toxicity in Corn Normally, environmental and


climatic conditions in Serbia and other temperate regions do not favour the growth of aflatoxins, in contrast to tropical and sub-tropical zones where aflatoxin contamination is more evident.20


However, the risk of aflatoxin contamination,


particularly in maize, is expected to increase in higher latitudes due to rising temperature. A recent model study predicts that aflatoxin in maize will become a food safety issue for Europe, especially in the most likely scenario of a 2°C increase in global temperature. Areas at high risk of aflatoxin outbreaks include Eastern Europe, the Balkan Peninsula, and the Mediterranean.21


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Video Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GguOOGzeOWk Photo Credit: Kent Weakley/ Shutterstock.com


Risk maps for aflatoxin contamination in maize at harvest in 3 different climate scenarios, present, +2 °C, +5 °C


Figure 1. Risk maps for aflatoxin contamination in maize at harvest in 3 different climate scenarios, present, +2 °C, +5 °C. Mean daily data used as input result from 100-year run of the predictive model AFLAmaize in 2254 geo-referenced points throughout Europe, in the 3 scenarios. The scale 0–200 refers to the aflatoxin risk index (AFI), output from the predictive model; increasing the (present (a), +2°C (b), +5°C (c)) number, the risk of


contamination increases. Maps generated using Mathworks, Matlab. Computer Program, 2012 http://it.mathworks.com/.


Source: Battilani et al. (2016)21 Material available under Public License, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4828719/


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UNEP FRONTIERS 2016 REPORT

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