will continue. That will depend, to a large degree, on the terms and conditions of the UK’s eventual departure from ‘Club Europe’. The two principal cast members are adopting rather different approaches. German chancellor Angela Merkel is taking a pragmatic ‘take your time’ line. French president François Hollande is more hostile, but his grip on the reins of La République looks increasingly tenuous. Clearly, it is in the UK’s interests to negoti- ate, ideally with the EU as a bloc, an ‘orderly exit’. However, persuading all 26 remaining member states to agree terms is certain to be an uphill struggle, made all the more dif- ficult by last month’s news that a cross-party coalition of peers is hoping to persuade the House of Lords to block any legislation that would trigger Article 50, the mechanism by which the Brexit would be initiated. Nobody can say that new prime minister Theresa May isn’t doing her damnedest to make friends and influence EU people. In her first 14 days in office, she visited Edin- burgh, Cardiff, Berlin, Paris, Belfast, Rome, Bratislava and Warsaw – a multi-sector itinerary that might have driven even the most unflappable of travel managers to consider an alternative career.
ON THE FENCE Theresa May cannot afford to ‘wait and see’: once Article 50 is invoked to open the
door to official Brexit talks, she has just two years to negotiate an orderly exit – but travel management leaders are sitting firmly on the fence.
Michael McCormick, executive director of the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), says: “The outcome of the UK’s refer- endum heralds a period of change within the EU. During this time, GBTA and its partners across Europe and in the UK will continue educating its members on the impact for the business travel sector, and will work
travel, like the EU-US visa waiver exemp- tion, continue.” The GBTA will advocate for these principles as the Brexit process moves forward, he says. This ‘keep calm and carry on’ mentality is echoed by Anthony Rissbrook, manag- ing director at Hillgate Travel. “Of course there was an initial shock when the Brexit vote was cast – I’m not sure many people expected it and, as such, many didn’t have a plan in place for this eventuality,” he says. “But despite an initial blip in day-to-day busi-
“The Brexit issue is clouded with uncertainty, which extends through the fragile business travel environment”
together to promote and defend the interests of the business travel industry.” He adds: “While it is impossible immedi- ately to assess the implications of the result on the UK, European and global economy, and on international relations and world order at this point, GBTA remains commit- ted to the same principles it always holds strong: ensuring that business travellers maintain freedom of movement, business is not disrupted, travel infrastructure remains strong and programmes and bilateral agreements that facilitate safe and secure
ness, we have settled back into ‘business as usual’ and are advising our clients to do the same. Activity levels remain positive and on track for this time of year.”
Over at the Association of Corporate
Travel Executives (ACTE), executive direc- tor Greely Koch says: “The Brexit issue is clouded with uncertainty, which extends through the fragile business travel envi- ronment. There are dozens of questions regarding work regulations, border control, passport and visa issues, the potential for new tariffs and taxes on flights out of the UK,
Up in the air...
FOR THE AVIATION INDUSTRY, preliminary estimates from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) suggest that the number of UK air passengers could fall by 3 to 5 per cent by 2020, driven by the expected downturn in economic activity and the fall in the sterling exchange rate. British Airways’ parent company, the Madrid-based International Airlines Group (IAG), has already downgraded its profits forecast, and Easyjet chief executive Carolyn McCall has set up her own Brexit team to negotiate with UK and EU officials. Ryanair has taken more drastic action, shifting the focus of its expansion plans away from the UK and, more specifically, reducing winter capacity and frequencies from Stansted – although chief executive Michael O’Leary has said that no routes will be abandoned. The big ‘unknown’ here is aviation regulation. The UK faces a
trade-off between accessing the European Single Aviation Market and having the policy freedom to set its own regulations.
62 BBT September/October 2016
“The Brexit vote has triggered much uncertainty – financial and otherwise,” said IATA director general Tony Tyler. “As leaders in the UK and the EU work to establish a new framework for their relationship, it is critical that whatever form the new UK- EU relationship takes, it must continue to ensure the common interests of safe, secure, efficient and sustainable air connectivity.” The UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has said there will be “no immediate change” to airline regulation, even though it seems inevitable that there will be changes at a later date. “The CAA will now be working closely with the Department
for Transport in assisting the UK government as negotiations on exiting the EU progress,” the authority said. “We will ensure that government is fully apprised of the consumer and industry benefits provided by the current arrangements and specifically in relation to our continued role within the European Aviation Safety Agency framework and the European Common Aviation Area.”
BUYINGBUSINESSTRAVEL.COM
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