FX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES – FEATURED MARKET – AUD/CAD
AUD/CAD broke beneath the 2001 bottom at .7539 to reach a new all-time low at .7181 in October 2008 before immediately rebounding to leave a failed downwards break. Losses from the July 2008 recovery peak at .9841 were then fully retraced, extending to .9915 in November 2009 before retracing close to 50% of the rise to leave a higher low at .8582 in June 2010. Tis set up an additional advance which extended to 1.0783 in February 2012, ahead of a two-legged retreat to .9957 & .9927 in May & October 2012. Attempts to resume the 4 year+ advance are now under way. We need to see the latest strength sustain a break of the August 2012 lower top at 1.0601. Already there has been a golden cross of
the (red & green) 13 & 52 week moving averages combined with MACD moving into positive territory. Tis bodes well for an initial return towards 1.0783, with 1.1074-1.1316 the next major target area above there. Tis marks the current top of the (purple) multi-year bull channel / 100% projection of the initial .7181-.9915 advance measured from .8582. To weaken the bullish outlook we will need to see a failed break of the 1.0601 barrier followed by a reversal under February’s 1.0242 higher low, in which case a return towards the 2012 double bottom at .9957 / .9927 may occur.
Steve Jarvis
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES As at 25 March NZD/USD USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/THB AUD/CAD AUD/NZD EUR/AUD EUR/NZD
Current level .8365
1.2425 3.0990 29.265 1.0680 1.2515 1.2420 1.5545
Major trend Up
Down Flat
Down Up
Down Flat
Down
Major targets .8840 / .9477
1.1728 / 1.0791
27.540 / 27.080 1.1316 / 1.1639 1.2105 / 1.1936
1.4426 & 1.4216
Trend change level .7813
1.2818
2.9930 / 3.2102 31.200 1.0242 1.2831
1.2135 / 1.3189 1.6966
82 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2013
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