FX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MAJOR CROSS-RATES - FEATURED MARKET - EUR/NOK
EUR/NOK peaked at 10.151 in December 2008 and then steadily retraced the rise from the October 2007 extreme low of 7.6256, initially reaching 7.6786 in May 2010 ahead of a recovery to 8.2551 in October 2010.
A (red) bearish channel then
developed, breaking down through 7.6256-7.6786 in September 2011. Losses extended as far as 7.2490 in August 2012, subsequently leaving a slightly higher low at 7.2803 in December 2012. The latest recovery has exited from the aforementioned (red) bear channel to set up a return move towards the key
7.6612-7.6786 area, possibly the top of the (pink) projected bear channel which currently intersects at just below 7.80. At this stage, the recovery is classed as corrective with the risk of an eventual return to weakness. We have a next major downside target at 7.1021, the 100% downside projection from the 7.6786-8.2551 recovery seen in 2010. Longer-term, the 6.7270-6.9230 area appears possible. This marks the 61.8% Fibonacci projection of the 10.151-7.6786 decline from 8.2551 and a 38.2% decline from the long-term high at 10.151 in December 2008.
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR MAJOR CROSS-RATES As at 25 March EUR/GBP GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/NOK EUR/SEK
Current level .8555
143.95 123.15 1.2220 7.5470 8.4335
Major trend Flat Up
Flat Flat
Down Down
7.1021 / 6.9230 8.0464 & 7.4609
Major targets 153.24 / 163.07
Trend change level .7962 / .8940 125.69
105.46 / 127.92 1.2000 / 1.3239 7.6612 8.7937
80 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2013
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