fundamental analysis
both domestically and internationally. Nationalism is an especially powerful force
in China and the explosion
of anti Japanese protests across the country last year will have served as a stark reminder to the Politburo what they may expect if they fail to manage expectations. China’s
future
looks bright, but the flags waved by passionate citizens will not necessarily be red.
Te rise of China has seen a number of border disputes and concerns raised by its neig hb ours . H o w e v e r , perhaps an a l t e rna ti v e view could be that aſter a long period of colonisation and rebuilding, the Chinese dragon has awoken and is stretching its wings. Rather than viewing the Communist Party as having an inherently a g g r es siv e foreign policy in the stereotypical Soviet mould, we may be best served considering that
The
incidents. Aſter all, this is the same Communist Party that realised that China was falling behind the rest of Asia and pro-actively instigated economic reforms. A look to North Korea offers a sober reminder of what a dogmatic embrace of communism results in.
A number of analysts believe that
FX
demanded, the process may be more of a natural development rather than a sudden event. In this sense, talk of a ‘hard or soft’ landing might not be as suitable for Chinese economics as it is for Chinese politics. Perhaps the most appropriate question is whether the Communist Party can make the smooth transition to becoming more open and democratic, or will it collapse and lead to the chaos seen following the fall of the Soviet Union.
dawn forced of the Internet an and unwelcome social
media specifically in recent years has
air of transparency upon the ruling elite the party may be
doing the bare minimum to meet demand and placate domestic fervour without sparking major international
the days are numbered for the Communist Party. However, expectations of a collapse are far from imminent, but with the rate of reform and development being
However, when looking at the na ti o na l i s t drum beat sounding from Beijing, a further element to consider may be the question of official corruption in China. While there may have been a certain level of tolerance of C ommun i s t Party behaviour in the past, the dawn of
the internet and social media specifically in recent years has forced an unwelcome air of transparency upon the ruling elite. The internet is heavily censored domestically,
FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2013 17
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