TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FX EMERGING MARKETS – FEATURED RATE – USD/ZAR
USD/ZAR reached a peak of 11.870 in October 2008 (a 6 year high), before tracing out a top pattern. A steady retreat followed, eventually forming a 6.5747, 6.5488 & 6.6264 triple bottom between December 2010 and July 2011. An initial recovery to 8.6036 in November 2011 was followed by a key higher low at 7.4044 in February 2012 from where the recovery phase resumed. Just over 50% of the 11.870- 6.5488 2 ½ year decline has so far been retraced, with action contained within an almost 2 year (red) bull channel. Te (red, green & blue) 13, 52 & 260 week (3 month, 1 & 5 year) moving averages are positively aligned and rising and
with MACD also remaining bullish we favour a continued retracement of the 11.870-6.5488 decline over coming months. 9.6907-9.8370 is our next target area, this marks the 100% upside projection from the November-December 2012 9.0034-8.4161 setback / 61.8% retracement of 11.870- 6.5488, with potential for an eventual return towards the 10.614-10.688 area, the 76.4% retracement / March 2009 lower top provided a setback can leave a higher low above 8.4161 at an ideal maximum of former resistance at 8.6036- 8.6911. Te upper target also marks the intersection of the (purple) longer-term 13.856-11.870 downtrend.
FX
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR FX EMERGING MARKETS As at 25 March EUR/CZK EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/RON USD/ILS USD/RUR USD/TRL USD/ZAR
Current level 25.760 305.50 4.1600 4.4150 3.6270 30.725 1.8135 9.2435
Major trend Flat Up
Flat Up
Flat Flat Up Up
Major targets 324.16 & 349.93 4.8532 & 5.0062
Trend change level 24.281 / 26.106 282.39
4.0290 / 4.4285 4.2725
2.0626 & 2.2600 9.8370 & 10.614
3.5166 / 3.9788 28.603 / 32.893 1.7342 8.0650
FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2013 81
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