TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MAJORS REPORT TREND EURO, US DOLLAR, YEN, BRITISH POUND
SPOT PRICE
EURUSD USDJPY EURJPY EURGBP
EURO/GBP
Te cross euro/gbp was first traded in January 1999, at around 0.7100, and fell to a historical low at 0.5683 in May 2000. From that bottom, the euro began moving upwards, entering progressively a major up-trend, and reaching a historical high at 0,9809 on January 1st, 2009 (+72.6% vs. the May 2000 low). From that peak a strong correction drew the cross down to a low at 0.7757 on July 23rd, 2012. In the last quarter of 2012 there was a strong recovery that continued through the first weeks of 2013, pushing the euro to a peak at 0.8814 on February 25th, on the tops since October 2011. Te cross then declined towards 0.8485.
In spite of the strong recovery that took place in the last 7-8 months, there is still no clear evidence of the beginning of a major euro/sterling up-trend. Te cross would lose momentum below 0.8450, even if a wider correction’s signal would only be triggered by a fall below the 0.8300 support level, with a first important target in the 0.8100- 0.8200 area. Anyway, only a break below that support (premature) would provide a bearish signal for the months to come. New buy-signals should the cross overcome 0.8815/50 (premature), targeting the key resistance area 0.9000-0.9100.
22/03/2013 01/01/2013
1.2985 94.74 123.03 0.8534
1.3198 86.64
114.43 0.8117
∆%
-1.6% 9.3% 7.5% 5.1%
01/01/2012
1.2929 76.78 99.68 0.8328
∆%
0.4% 23.4% 23.4% 2.5%
01/01/2011
1.3366 81.19 108.64 0.8575
∆%
-2.9% 16.7% 13.2% -0.5%
01/01/2010
1.4331 93.14 133.22 0.8858
∆%
-9.4% 1.7% -7.6% -3.7%
FX
TREND Trend 3-6 months side S1
Trend 6-12 months up-side S2 Trend 12-18 months up-side S3
SUPPORTS
0.8450+ 0.8300
0.8100-0.8200++
SPOT PRICE R3 0.8534
RESISTANCES 0.9250
R2 0.9000-0.9100++ R1
0.8815/50+ FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2013 75
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