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Wednesday 6 November Time: 14.00 – 15.00 Location: South Gallery Rooms 15 & 16

This seminar and summary report looks at a unique model designed by Timetric*, which ranks 50 major markets in terms of the potential for growth in their tourism markets.

Timetric provides unique intelligence on the travel and tourism industry, providing analysis and forecasts on key performance indicators at country and city level.

Predicting the flow of tourists around the world is a challenging task at the best of times, but with current economic uncertainty in advanced economies and volatility in emerging markets, not to mention bouts of social unrest and extreme events, predictive modelling is proving to be a hazardous occupation. However, there are certain fundamental conditions that

are required for a country’s tourism sector to really flourish, namely prosperity (in major source markets), attractiveness, competitiveness, convenience, and strategic significance. But even with the greatest potential for expansion, demand and supply growth can be undermined by the risk of (or actual occurrence of) political unrest, disease pandemics and natural disasters, for example. The Tourism Potential Index (TPI) assesses these fundamental conditions in combination with an analysis of risk, culminating in a ranking of 50 major tourism markets by their overall potential for growth.

HIGHLIGHTS Singapore currently tops the TPI rankings, given its relatively high scores for prosperity, significance and convenience. However, the country’s potential is still undermined by competitiveness issues, and as costs continue to rise and the Singapore dollar strengthens, this could further detract from the country’s overall potential.

JAPAN Although not ranking in the top 10, Japan has been moving up the rankings. Its tourism sector has been thriving in recent months, enjoying a boost to competitiveness from the depreciation in the yen, as well as

clearly diminishing anxiety over the fallout from the nuclear disaster in early 2011. The relaxation of visa requirements for some countries in the region is also a factor in improving the country’s standing in the convenience category in the TPI rankings.

BRAZIL Brazil’s position in the attractiveness component of the TPI is boosted by its hosting of the 2014 FIFA World Cup, which is expected to draw hundreds of thousands of tourists. However, on the whole, Brazil fares poorly in the TPI, owing to the troubled economies in many Latin America markets. On the competitiveness front, the current depreciating trend in the real is a positive for the country’s tourism potential, but there are growing expectations that prices for key tourism-related services will soar ahead of and during the World Cup, which Brazil’s tourism board fears will have a negative impact in terms of the post-World Cup legacy.

VIETNAM Vietnam is struggling at present to generate fast growth in its tourism sector. The downturn in Vietnam’s economy is also impacting negatively on growth in business travel to the country. However, on the plus side, Vietnam’s prosperity ranking is high, bolstered by the expansion in outbound tourism from neighbouring China.

The TPI is a unique model incorporating the very latest high frequency data from official sources, insights from Timetric’s media monitoring technology, regular surveys of highly engaged industry players, as well as assessments of the latest internet searching trends and expert opinions.

The model will assess a range of factors, including prospects for income growth from major source markets, and an analysis of attractiveness for both leisure and business tourists. The seminar will focus on both the stand-out performers and underperformers, in terms of rankings and movements.

Also provided will be an assessment of scenarios that would be result in further shifts in the TPI so attendees can minimize the risks involved in expansion, development and customer acquisition.


for WTM 2013

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