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FEATURES Table 4-1


2013 Rank


1 Brazil 2 Chile


3 Uruguay 4 China


Turkey


Top 30 Developing Countries for Retail Investment Market


Country Region


Latin America Latin America Latin America Asia


5 United Arab Emirates Middle East and North Africa 6


7 Mongolia 8 Georgia 9 Kuwait


10 Armenia


11 Kazakhstan 12 Peru


13 Malaysia 14 India


15 Sri Lanka


16 Saudi Arabia 17 Oman


18 Colombia 19 Indonesia 20 Jordan 21 Mexico 22 Panama 23 Russia 24 Lebanon 25 Botswana 26 Namibia 27 Morocco 28 Macedonia 29 Azerbaijan 30 Albania


Eastern Europe Asia


Central Asia


Middle East and North Africa Central Asia Central Asia Latin America Asia Asia Asia


Middle East and North Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America Asia


Middle East and North Africa Latin America Latin America Eastern Europe


Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa


Middle East and North Africa Eastern Europe Central Asia


Eastern Europe Source: A.T. Kearney, Global Retail Development Index


The 2013 GRDI Findings The following is a region-by-region look at the GRDI’s


top 30 countries.


Latin America Latin America has taken a dominating position in the


GRDI, occupying the top three positions and seven of the top 30 overall. A strong and growing middle class, controlled inflation, sustained economic growth, and continued economic and political stability have increased consumer and investor confidence and created a favorable environment for retail development. The expanding middle class continues to offer


important growth opportunities, particularly as the retail footprint expands beyond main cities into the second and third tiers, where consumers increasingly prefer modern


4 Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF SHOPPING CENTERS 15 2 RETAIL PROPERTY INSIGHTS VOL. 20, NO. 2, 2013


Attractiveness (25%)


100.0 95.6 92.0 62.1 95.8 86.8 17.7 36.6 87.8 32.3 44.1 52.9 63.4 36.8 16.6 71.4 77.5 59.2 47.4 53.1 79.0 49.7 92.4 74.1 38.7 20.8 30.1 40.7 28.5 30.6


Country Risk


(25%) 86.2


100.0 73.9 67.9 94.6 83.7 37.0 63.8 87.1 63.6 51.9 60.4 95.8 59.4 60.5 79.2 97.8 73.6 49.6 65.0 75.0 70.8 44.0 32.9 82.0 77.1 60.5 42.3 26.0 35.0


Market


Saturation (25%)


43.3 18.7 63.5 34.3 3.0


28.9 99.0 83.4 36.4 93.5 76.2 63.4 22.0 63.3 81.8 35.6 11.3 43.0 49.3 65.9 12.1 37.2 21.1 48.6 31.8 12.6 48.7 56.0 90.3 73.6


Time


Pressure (25%)


48.3 54.3 36.5


100.0 60.8 50.9 96.5 61.9 22.2 43.6 57.8 49.3 39.8 60.6 58.6 30.7 29.1 32.4 61.4 19.6 30.6 37.2 37.4 38.4 38.5 73.2 44.0 43.9 37.3 40.9


GRDI Score


69.5 67.1 66.5 66.1 63.5 62.6 62.5 61.4 58.4 58.2 57.5 56.5 55.3 55.0 54.4 54.2 53.9 52.1 51.9 50.9 49.2 48.7 48.7 48.5 47.8 45.9 45.8 45.7 45.5 45.1


Change in Rank Compared to 2012


- -


+1 -1


+2 +7 +2 -2


+3


N/A +8 -2 -2 -9 -


-2 -9


+5 -3 -2


+7 +2 +3 -2 -5


N/A -


-7


-12 -5


retail. Many local and regional retailers are providing strong competition for many of the international leaders. For example, Chile’s Cencosud has expanded into neighboring countries, gaining strength in markets such as Peru and Colombia. Brazil: On top again. Brazil tops the GRDI for the third


consecutive year. Despite a GDP slowdown (0.9% in 2012), retail spending remains strong and is expected to rise 11% in 2013 thanks to continued expansion, organic growth, infrastructure improvements, and rising consumer confidence. Stronger employment rates and increased credit access for Brazil’s middle class—expected to grow to 113 million people by 2014, or roughly 56% of the population—are proving attractive to retailers.4 And the physical room for growth in Brazil remains wide. As international players continue expanding in São Paulo and


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