Pick A Winner Finding the Upset
When it comes to big-money stakes races, sometimes it pays to look past the favorites.
H
andicapping the races on a daily basis for a racetrack can at times be a grind. However, when the program is filled with big-money stakes races and top horses, handi- capping is more energized as you sift through options of proven winners with talented past performance resumes. The Grade 1 $249,175 Speedhorse/Graham Paint &
Appaloosa Futurity presents the latter scenario. The richest race for Paints took place June 1 at Remington Park and featured the rubber-match between two futurity winners. Imflashinthechicks won the $102,000 Oklahoma Paint Futurity in March; Situation was second in that race and won the $89,000 American Paint Classic in April, where he was a neck better. Because both were already futurity winners, it would be easy to select one of them to win, especially with Imflashin- thechicks as the top qualifier. The finals, however, appeared ripe for an upset. I came up with a viable upset choice with a chance to play at a much better wagering price. Fly CB Fly was slated to break from the rail post-position and had morning-line odds of 5-1. He has improved with every race.
putting him in contention immediately. Despite a slight drifting to the inside, Fly CB Fly was a clear winner, scor- ing by 1-¼ lengths. The Speedhorse/Graham Futurity Trial was next for
Fly CB Fly. He broke from the outside post position with clean sailing. After a solid start, Russel shook the reins once and never went to the whip, and Fly CB Fly glided home to win by one length while posting the second-fastest trial time. Fly CB Fly took the inside post for the final, and with rivals only to his outside, a clear path beckoned. He has defeated three of the other nine runners in the Speedhorse/Graham Futurity. Russel has been arguably the hottest rider over the final month of the Remington Park season, and trainer Kasey Willis is saddling horses that have landed first, second or third 60 percent of the time this season. The other side of the coin
In his March 22 career debut, a maiden event at 250
yards, Fly CB Fly was a step slow from the start and was squeezed by rivals from both sides, hindering his chances. Adding to the issues, this was a race where a goose decided to walk across the track at about the 125-yard mark. With- out signs of bother, Fly CB Fly ran directly to the inside of the goose. The horse and jockey Russel Hadley had to see it and the thought of a possible high-speed engagement cer- tainly crossed their minds. Fly CB Fly was not going to win, so it was better to be cautious and wait for another attempt. April 12 gave Fly CB Fly his next 250-yard maiden try and everything was different. The start was much quicker,
is Fly CB Fly would be facing his toughest competition by far. Considering his maturing prospects over three races, the way he won his final and the fact he might be the fresher horse, I selected Fly CB Fly for the big race upset in the Speedhorse/Graham Futurity. Ultimately, my assessment for an upset was correct, though not quite in the way I had imagined. The lone Appaloosa, Major Tom, had the best start to gain the lead, winning by 1-¾ lengths. Situation ran a solid race but was second, beaten
@thedaleday
by 1-¾ lengths. The 4-5 wagering favorite Imflash- inthechicks had a bobbing, awkward start, falling in behind Situation and drifted toward the rail before run- ning fourth. My upset choice, Fly CB Fly, was at the right price of 5-1 odds and had an even start but could never find the next burst of speed to get to the front. Such is the way handicapping goes at times.
Dale Day is a special contributor for Paint Horse Racing. To comment on this article, email
feedback@apha.com.
PAINT HORSE RACING JULY 2013 7
By Dale Day, Remington Park announcer and handicapper
COURTEST DALE DAY
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