Euler Hermes


Economic Outlook n° 1188 | Special Report | Transport: a two-speedworld


◾◾◾


andJapan Amere catch-upphase or genuine rebound, contras- ting situations in theUnited States and Japan.


3Theglobalmarkethas alsobenefited


▶ TheUnitedStates ina clear turnaroundtakes advantageof a catch-upeffect Afteraveragingmorethan17millionper yearover the longterm,newvehicleregistrations intheU.S.market plummetedto10.5millionunits in2009, causingtwo of thecountry’s threemanufacturers–GeneralMotors andChrysler–toseekbankruptcyprotection.The difficulties facedbyU.S.manufacturerswerenot the resultof the2008-09economicandfinancial crisis,but insteadtheir lossofmarket shareresultingfrompoorly adaptedvehiclelinesandexcessivestructural costs. In


Profitability of automobilemanufacturers U.S


2010 Change in sales Operatingmargin *


18.2% 7.4%


Sources : aggregate dataGM, Ford, consensus *Operatingmargin=operating income / sales


2011 8.3% 6.5%


2012e -1.5% 4.7%


2013f 3.9% 5.5%


fromtherecovery intheUnitedStates


 United States


PV registrations et employement in United States PVregistrations


18 year-on year in millions of units forecasts 16 14 12 10 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources : Auto Alliance, EulerHermes forecasts 8 11 12 13


600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400


2006and2007, i.e.beforethecrisis,GeneralMotors andFordhadalready recordedaggregatelossesof morethanUSD60billion.Withgovernment support in thecaseofGeneralMotorsandChrysler,andonitsown inthecaseof Ford, thecompaniesmanagedto restructuretheirproductioncapacityby closing18 plantsandreducingtheirworkforcefrom1.1million employees in2007toless than700,000in2010(for carmakersandautomotivecomponents).Since2010, themarkethas turnedaroundandisevenexpectedto growby12%tonearly15millionunits this year,alevel that shouldbeeasily toppedin2013with5%sales growth. Thanks totheiroverhauledproduct lines, restructured organizationsanddomesticmarketgrowth, theU.S. automobilemanufacturershavereturnedto profitability.This reboundhasenabledGeneralMotors andChrysler toemergefromChapter11,withGM floatingshares inthestockmarketandChrysler enteringintoanalliancewithItaly’s Fiat.The companies’5%to6%operatingmarginswere negativelyaffectedin2012by respectivelossesofUSD 1billionateachof theirEuropeansubsidiaries.After beingmoribund, theU.S.automobileindustry tooka longhardlookandmadethenecessary,albeitdifficult, strategic choices torejointheleadingglobal automobilemanufacturers. TheU.S.markethas theunusualdistinctionofbeing dominatedby salesof light trucksandSUVs,which account formorethan50%of total salesandoffer satisfactoryprofitability.


Number of employees ofU.S automobilemanufacturers andautomotive suppliers thousands


0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 12109876543210 Sources : national statistics


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24