Euler Hermes
Economic Outlook n° 1188 | Special Report | Transport: a two-speedworld
◾◾◾
demand Withthe2008-2009crisis,massivestimuluspackages generated impressive annual sales growth for pas- senger cars.
2Productionpartiallybutnotexclusively drivenbygrowthinemergingmarket China PV registrations PVregistrations inChina
10 12 14 16 18
2 4 6 8
year-on-year in millions of units forecasts PVregistrations in India 2.5 year-on year in millions of units forecasts
▶ ChinanowtheNo.1marketworldwide Thecountry recordeda50%increaseinautomobile sales in2009followedbyamorethan33%risein2010, beforeeasingback toamoresustainablegrowthrate of5%to6%per year.Unit sales intheChinesemarket surgedfrom7millionin2008tomorethan15million this
year.Continuedsalesgrowthisalmostguaranteed for several yearsgiventhevery lowownershiprateof around5%, comparedwith60%inEuropeandJapan
andmorethan80%intheUnitedStates.TheChinese market isalsohighlyprofitable,as customersdemand all thelatest
technologiesandaccessories.Themarket remainsdominatedbyWesternmanufacturers,with GeneralMotorsandVolkswagenvyingformarket
leadership.Chinesemanufacturersaccount forone- thirdof themarketandarestill toonumerous,with nearly100inall,whichwill requiremergers inorder to createcompaniesonaninternational scaleableto competeagainst sector leaders,notably inresearch anddevelopment.
▶ Althoughgrowing, theIndianmarket remains small relativetothesizeof itspopulationofmore than1billion Indiaalsoexperiencedrobust salesgrowthofnearly 20%in2009andmorethan30%in2010beforesettling back toarateof4%to5%per year.But that iswherethe comparisonswithChinaend,becausetheIndian market remains very small insizeataround2million vehiclesper year,approximately thesizeof theFrench market. Furthermore, theIndianmarket isoriented towardlowcostorultralowcost vehicles, suchas the TataNano,whichcosts less thanUSD2,000. Indiaalso offers substantial long-termgrowthpotential,withan ownershiprateof less than2%,but for thetimebeing thismarket remainsmuchlessprofitablethanthe Chinesemarket. Incontrast toChinaandits large numberofmanufacturers, theIndianautomotive sector isdominatedbyafewconglomerates suchas TataorMahindra,withwellestablishedfinancial strength.
India 2.0 1.5 1.0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Sources : China Association AutomobileManufacturers, EulerHermes forecasts 6 0.5 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Sources : Society of Indian AutomobileManufacturers, EulerHermes forecasts
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24