Economic Outlook n° 1188 | Special Report | Transport: a two-speedworld
Analysis of orderbooks of twomainaircraftmanufacturers 5% 16% 26% 15%
Latin America and Caribbean Europe
2% Africa
NorthAmerica Middle East
Despitepositiveoutlook, the aerospace industryhas beenexposedtosome risks.
2 33% Source: EulerHermes Asia-Pacific ◾◾◾
supporting business activity and growth – one that dates back to 2011 – is fleet renewal, exemplified by narrow-body aircraft ordersmade by U.S. carriers in order to address the ageing of their local fleet. These three sources of prosperity, a tangible factor in the sector’s commercial andoperational vitality, alsopro- vide the sectorwith ameasure of comfort in dealing with the outside risks to which it is exposed such as regional economic crisesor thedifficulties encounte- red by certain customer segments.
Longer term, Airbus estimates global air transport needs for theperiod2012-2031at28,200newaircraft (more than100seats forpassenger aircraft andinclu- ding 900 cargo aircraft)s, corresponding to a value of USD4trillionover thisperiod.At thathorizon, theglo- bal fleet will have doubled, increasing from15,500 units currently to 32,500.
▶ Profitability andnet cashpositionunder “industrial”pressure Intermsofprofitability, the sameprinciple thathas existedfor several years, still applies: theperformance of aircraftmanufacturers isnot impactedby thenow almostnon-existent fluctuations intheir activity,but by the costsof thedevelopment andthe industrial ramp-upofnewprograms. The twoprimary manufacturershavebothexperiencedagrowing numberofdifficulties suchasmajordelaysduringthe development stageorproblems inthe industrializationphases,whichhave affected profitability andnet cashposition. Thatwas the case yet againin2012. Thus costs relatedtothe industrial developmentof theA350XWBandcostoverruns fromoperations aimedat correctingthemicrocracks onthe entireA380fleetweighedfurtheronAirbus’ operatingmargin, althoughincreasedproduction across all lines contributedtoanoverall improvement, withtheoperatingmarginrisingfrom1.7%in2011to more than3%in2012(estimate).Boeing,meanwhile, maintainedahighoperatingmarginof around9.5%, thanksundoubtedly toamore extensiveproduct line andthe amortizationof costoverruns relatedtothe growingweightof theB787ontotalprojected production. This improvement inresults shouldbe confirmedin2013,butwill alsodependonthe progressof thesenewprograms.
▶ Await-and-see attitudeweighingonsalesof long-haul aircrafts andjumbojets The importanceof the soundhealthof theorder books ismade all themore clearby theweak performance inthe long-haul andjumbosegments in 2012.Orders inthis segmenthavedroppedfour-fold injust four years. Followingthisdownwardtrendsince 2008, thenumberof transactions involvinglong-haul aircrafts andjumbojets reachedanewlowin2012in
Challenges remainfor theaviation industry
Operatingmarginof aircraftmanufacturers %of sales
Airbus Commercial Boeing Commercial Airplanes Sources :manufacturers, EulerHermes 16