Economic Outlook n° 1188 | Special Report | Transport: a two-speedworld


Euler Hermes


Editorial


Rethinkingmobility T


heyear2012markedaturningpoint forglobal transport,whether road, rail, maritimeoraviation.Despiteanaturalmarket increasedrivenbydemographics


andgrowingwealth, thecardshavelargelybeenreshuffledbetweentheworld’s regionsandtransportplayers.Europeappears tobeinthemidstofaforcedlandingor evenahalt,whilethe‘newworld’–abetternamefor theemergingcountries,which haveclearlyemergedsincethe2008crisis! - is travelingfast,andinsomecasesvery fast.Theserelativelyworryingfigures forEuropeareconfirmedalsoinour forecasts. Asamatterof fact, theprolongedcrisis intheeurozonecreatesanumberofobstacles andevenmoreuncertaintyregardingthefutureof thosemarkets.Publicsupport is declininginthefaceofmassivebudgetaryadjustments,andhouseholds–with purchasingpowerunderpressure–arewaitingforbetterdaysanddeferringtheir consumptiondecisions: theseareall reasons toexpectanegativeimpactonthe profitabilityof sectorplayers.Peoplearedelayingbuyinganewcar,hesitatingtotravel faronholiday.Withflaggingactivity, thechallengesofovercapacityprovidefurther problems for thesector toresolve.Therestructurings seenthroughintheUnited States, inboththecarandairlinesectors, seemtohavespreadtotheother sideof the Atlanticandarefurtherdisruptinganindustrytheoriginsofwhichlieintheindustrial revolutions that shapedtheOldContinent.Andyet, inthewordsofFrench-Canadian authorRogerFournier, "Imaginationis theworld’sbestmeansof transportation"and imagineis stillaliveandkickinginEurope.Whenlookingat thestrategiesof carmakers, thestrengthofaircraftmanufacturers’businessmodel,orevenbuzzing innovation(oneonlyneeds toattendtradeshows toseetheincredibleinventions still inprototype), it isapparent that,despiteadownbeatmarket, ideas remainbrightand abundant.Themobilityofknowledgeandknow-howseemtobeafineevolutionfor transport inindustrializedcountries.At thesametime,arevolutionis indeed underwayin–shallwesay–lessmaturecountries,whenitcomes tothetransport industry.Thecatch-upintermsof transportequipmentand,especially,modeof transport,willbearevolution.And,as foranyrevolution, includingtheindustrial revolution,wecanalwayscountonEurope!_LudovicSubran


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