Economic Outlook n° 1188 | Special Report | Transport: a two-speedworld
Euler Hermes
▶ Withina two-speed Europe. Spanish production fell by 26%, albeitwithmajor efforts to bolster competitiveness, as the contraction in production closelymirrored the decline in the market.Meanwhile, at end-2011German production exceeded its pre-crisis level of nearly 6million units, although in 2012 it is trending in linewith the Europeanmarket,which accounts for 65%of its automobile exports, andwill contract by 7%in 2012.
This two-speed trend is also evident in the profitability figures of Europeanmanufacturers. Generalists are caught in a vise between the development of low-cost vehicle lines and the efforts of premiumbrandmanufacturers tomove down market.As a result, their operatingmarginswere a very low1%in 2012.Meanwhile,German manufacturersmanaged to generate a 7.5% operatingmargin in 2012 thanks to their ubiquitous presence in allmarkets – notably the very profitable U.S. andChinesemarkets – and their high-end vehicle lines that enable highermargins. This profitability gap limits the respective abilities of the generalist companies to invest in research and development or sales initiatives in order to take advantage of all the growingmarkets .▣YL
Profitability of automobilemanufacturersby country France
2010 change in sales Operatingmargin*
15.7% 2.9%
Sources : aggregate data PSA, Renault, consensus *Operatingmargin=operating income / sales
Germany change in sales Operatingmargin 2010
21.4% 6.1%
Sources : aggregate data BMW,Daimler, VW, consensus *Operatingmargin=operating income / sales
▶ Automotive suppliers: the strength of a global presence >Given the backdrop of the severely deteriorated Europeanmarket, it is interesting to observe the profitability trends of the leading European tier 1 automotive suppliers. Since 2010, they have achieved a level of profitability that they did not even achieve in the early 2000s, in fact far fromit. Not only did they manage the crisis by restructuring their production capacity tomatch European volume levels,more importantly they sought out growthwhere itwas happening, i.e. in the emerging countries and also by investing in North America. This ability to seek out growth requires financial resources that tier 2 and 3 subcontractorsmay not have. In contrast to the profitability of the large automotive suppliers, regional subcontractorswere negatively affected by the deterioration in the European market and for themost part had lowor negativemargins.
Europe 2008 2009 3.4% 2.1% 2010 2011
change in sales 12.0% -17.8% 34.7% 16.9% Op.margin
6.9% 7.1% *Operatingmargin=operating income / sales
PV registrations in Spain and Germany PVregistrations inSpain