Economic Outlook n° 1188 | Special Report | Transport: a two-speedworld


Rail transport


▶ Growthinhigh-speedrail lines inthe EuropeanUnion(1985-2009)


1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000


0 in kilometers A sector that is growing but dependent upon public financing


> Key figures for the rail industry The rail industry includes everything fromsubways and tramways to high-speed trains.According to the International Union of Railways (Union Internationale des Chemins de Fer - UIC), railway transport ac- counted for 2,700 billion passenger kilometers and 9,000metric ton kilometers in the freight segment in 2011.Overall, there are approximately 1 billion kilometers of railways around theworld. In Europe, rail- ways account for around 6% of total passenger transport and 7% of all freight transport.


8 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 09876543210505


Sources :Union internationale des chemins de fer Fer – high-speed rail department, national sources


Note : these figures only take into account lines or segments on which trains can travel at more than 250 km/hour


> Toward cleanmobility The entire sector is benefiting frominvestment. In Europe and North America, this investment is going toward improving and, insome cases, renovating existing infrastructure.Meanwhile,Asia and SouthAme- rica are designing new rail networks that will serve their cities and regions, which are experiencing ra- pid population growth.Whether it involves reducing urban congestion or pollution, subways and tram- ways offer a promising growth outlook,with numerous cities around theworld developing this formof public transportation. The transport sector accounts for around 23%of globalCO2 emissions,with the vast majority of these emissions attributable to road transport and automobiles. Global CO2 emissions have steadily increased since 1990, and all transportmodes –with the exception of rail – have seen an increase in their relative shares of greenhouse gas emissions produced through combustible energy. Railway com- panies operating around theworld currently produce less than 1%of total CO2 emissions attributable to transport activities.


▶ The relativeweight of civil engineering in a high-speed rail project >Newhigh-speed railway projects are very costly. The audit estimated the cost to build a 400 kmrailway over a right-of-way presenting no natural obstacles:


Infrastructure construction


Land ownership and/or control (for the record)


Engineering(PO, PM)


Civil engineering (earthworks, engineered structures) Track, ballast


Railway equipment (overhead lines)


Railway equipment (signaling, telecommunications, etc.) Total


(€millions)


540 600


3,180 1,080 300


300 6,000


Cost Relative to total (%)


9 10


53 18 5


5 100


PO: ProjectOwnership ; PM:projectManagment, OA : ouvrage d’art ; Source :MEDDTL


> Large-scale projects for high-speed rail lines Rail transport also offers a promising outlook following the revolution that occurred some 30 years ago withthe advent ofhigh-speed trains. These trains arewell-knowninEurope andJapanthanks to the French manufacturerAlstom, theGerman company Siemens and the Japanese firms Japan Railway (JR) Tokai, JR East and JRWest. Numerous projects have also been launched recently in China,where planswere laid starting in 2003 to build 12,000 kmof high-speed rail lines by 2020, a figure that has since been increa- sed to 16,000 km. In fact, given themassive investments, China decided to develop its own high-speed train,whichitnowoffers forgeneral export.Accordingto theUIC, the rapiddevelopmentof thehigh-speed rail lines, notably inAsia, should boost overall high-speed railway capacity to 50,000 kmby 2050. The pro- jects aremultiplying in several countries,withMorocco planning to build 1,500 kmby 2035, Saudi Ara- bia 450 kmby 2014 and Brazil 510 kmby 2018. Aside fromthe kilometers of tracks laid, themost pro- mising outlook for export growth lies in rolling stock, aswas the case forAlstomin South Korea andmore recentlyMorocco. Aswith any growth sector, competition is stiff, notablywith the Germanmanufactu- rer Siemens,which in addition towinning bids in its domesticmarket alsowon contracts in Spain, Rus- sia and China.


> Strong growth outlook dependent upon public financing AccordingtoOECDforecasts,demandfor rail transport isexpectedtoincreaseby80%for freightand50%for passengers by 2050. Rail transport is expected to groweight-fold,with passenger rail transport expected to increase 12-fold.Onemajor point of uncertainty remains, however, namely the extremely high cost of such investments.Thecostper kilometerofahigh-speedrail lineisestimatedat€15millionforaright-of-waywi- thoutobstructions.Thesovereigndebt crisis,notably inEurope, couldput thebrakesonsomeprojects,asoc- curredintheUnitedStates,whereonlysixof the11projects initiallypresentedbytheU.S.DepartmentofTrans- portation in early 2010 remained under consideration bymid-2011. Fivewere abandoned, typically for lack of public financing,whichwas impossible to raise in theUnited States, as evidencedmost clearly in Florida. ▣ YL


13


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24