Economic Outlook n° 1188 | Special Report | Transport: a two-speedworld


Euler Hermes


remainsatastructurally lowlevel,generalistmanu- facturers lack profitability and will need to adapt theirmanufacturing equipment. Nowmore than ever, an international and finely-tuned presence is essential to generate satisfactory returns and finance investments and research.


 World


After contractingby12%in2009andreboundingwith a26%increase in2010,global automobileproduction returnedtocruisingspeedin2011-12,with4%to5% growthper year.We expect thisgrowthrate tobe maintainedin2013.Althoughglobalproductionhas returnedtosteadygrowth, adramaticupheaval occurredbetweenthe years2007(pre-crisis) and 2011(post-crisis),witha sharpcontractionin productioninthemature countries (exceptGermany) anda robust surge inthe “emerging” countries.Along withitsmarket,China’sproductionsurgedby107% duringtheperiodtoexceed18millionvehicles produced,makingit the leadingmarketworldwide. India alsorecordedstronggrowthof almost75%to nearly4millionvehicles.Ontheopposite endof the


1


Aglobalmarketgrowingby4%to5% per year


Passenger vehicles (PV) and commercial vehicles (CV) Production China India


Mexico Brazil


South Korea Germany


United Kingdom Spain


United States France Japan Italy


Source:OICA


2007 8.9 2.3 2.1 3.0 4.1 6.2 1.8 2.9


10.8 3.0


11.6 1.3


2011 18.4 3.9 2.7 3.4 4.7 6.3 1.5 2.4 8.7 2.3 8.4 0.8


spectrum,productionfellby16%intheUnited Kingdom,20%intheUnitedStates,24%inFrance and 38%inItaly. Thenearly28%decline inJapanwas exacerbatedbyproductiondifficulties that lasted severalmonths followingthe earthquake andtsunami inearly2011. These figures includebothpassenger cars (PC) andcommercial vehicles (CV) toprovide a comprehensive view. Inall,nearly80millionvehicles wereproducedin2011,ofwhich75%passenger cars and25%commercial vehicles (trucks,buses, light commercial vehicles).


◾◾◾ Global automobileproduction


55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90


Passenger Vehicles and Commercial Vehicles in millions of units


forecasts


0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 13f2e109876543210


e: estimated, f: forecast Sources :OICA, EulerHermes forecasts


Automobile production by country Automobileproductionby country (PVandCV) inmillions ofunits


Change inautomobileproductionby country (PVandCV)2007-2011


South Korea Brazil Mexico India China


United Kingdom Germany


United Sates Spain


Italy Japan France


Source:OICA 5


107.4% 74.7% 27.9% 14.4% 14.0% 1.6% -16.4% -18.5% -19.7% -23.9% -27.6% -38.5%


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