Economic Outlook n° 1188 | Special Report | Transport: a two-speedworld
Automobile
Europe stalled as the world rolls on by
Keys to symbols SectorGrade
A B
SectorGrade SectorGrade C SectorGrade
D —
4
Imminent or recognised crisis Not available
Signs of weaknesses Structural weaknesses
Positive fundamentals & outlook
> Our business sector forecasts are a rating system founded upon the microeconomic expertise of Euler Hermes group underwriters and analysts, who closely monitor risk in companies worldwide through our network of more than 50 local subsidiaries. This results in a qualitative assessment of the health and outlook of a sector. Generally, although not in every case, this assessment includes growth forecasts for a given sector. We focus more on the health of businesses (in terms of margins and solvency) than on their growth in turnover.
> Starting this year, the forecasts cover a large number of countries—32 in total—spread across the six major zones as defined by Euler Hermes. The number of modalities under the ratings has been cut to 4, compared to 5 previously, to avoid arriving at an average level that is little representative of the realities. The category ‘Not available’ indicates a sector that is not present in a country or an aggregate that cannot be calculated. The sector forecast for a given zone is the weighted sum (by GDP) of the forecasts of the countries concerned._
Source: EulerHermes T
he globalmarket is currently growing by 4% to 5% per year, but production and consump- tion have shifted to the new economies.
Starting in 2012, the growth in the emergingmar- kets stabilized(atarespectablerate), thanks inlarge part topublicandprivatesector support inBraziland India. The U.S. automotive industry’s clear turna- round ismarred by the European crisis, while the Japaneseautomotiveindustry continues tobenega- tively affected by the strong yen. In Europe,where the market declined by another 7% in 2012 and