Economist John Kenneth Galbraith once said that there were two classes of forecasters: those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know. And so it is with our 11th Annual Meetings Industry Forecast, where uncertainty has its place.
A
s I write this, the September jobs report has been released and sifted through. Amid
growing concerns that the economy is falling back into a recession, the report —which indicated that hiring was stronger than expected in September— was a bit of a bright spot.
But only a bit. Patrick J.O’Keefe, director of economic research at the financial firm J.H. Cohn, described it as “verymuch a buffet of crumbs.There are some good things there, but it’s not going to fill our appetite.” At thesame time that thereport cameout,
theOccupyWall Streetmovement—demon- strations against economic inequality, corporate greed, and the influence of corporatemoney and lobbyists on government—had spread to 70 major cities in the United States. It has nowgone international,with demonstrations inmore than 80 countries. But on Oct. 11,NewYork City’s Zuccotti
Park—OccupyWall Street’s launching pad— seemed not only several thousand miles away but a world apart from the Sands Convention Center at theVenetian Hotel in LasVegas, where nearly 6,000 people flooded the exhibit hall for the inau- guralIMEXAmerica. During the show, I attend- ed a handful of press conferences and met with dozens of planners and suppliers from around the world. The buzz was overwhelmingly positive— not just aboutIMEXAmerica, which exceeded expectations in terms of exhibitor and attendee numbers—but about prospects for the meetings industry in the coming year. IMEXAmerica was proof positive of what
Steven Hacker, CAE, president of the Internation- al Association of Exhibitions and Events, writes as part of our 11th Annual Meetings Industry
6 pcmaconvene November 2011
Forecast (p. 67):“Volatility in the global and U.S. economies is continuing, and any forecasts of future economic performance for almost any industry is subject to rapid and very unpre- dictable revision. What is indisputable, however, is that despite the ebbs and flows of the economy in recent years, the exhibitions and events indus- try continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience both here and abroad.” The two other industry expertswho con-
tribute to our 2012 forecast likewise acknowl- edge the effect ofdomestic and globalmarket forces on our industry, but expect better days ahead.BarryGoldstein, chief revenue officer for DolceHotels and Resorts,writes (p. 47): “What wedo knowis that asweapproach 2012, the industry continues to be optimistic about growth in the lodging section.However,what is even more clear is that rapid changein thelodging environmentwill continuewith the changing global economy.” And in an interviewwithConveneExecutive
EditorChristopherDurso,DavidHuether, senior vice president for research at the U.S.Travel Association, says (p. 55):“Aswe get closer to the election cycle, the probability of anymajor changein legislation—likechanges to the health-care laws, or increasing regulations—is going to diminish,whichwouldmean that busi- ness confidencewill start to pick up, because there’s going to bemore certainty….Which I thinkwill start toembolden companies to start to invest, to expand operations,which is then going tomeanmoremeetings. So next year should be a little brighter than this year.” Emphasis on “should.”
NO DOUBT: We can’t say for certain how our industry will fare in 2012, but of this we can be sure: Technology will con- tinue to change the way we meet. This month, we launch a new column devoted to hybrid and virtual meetings (p. 37), starting off with the example of the American Dental Association’s recent hybrid meeting, which took place over the same dates and in the same place (Las Vegas) as IMEX America. And in our CMP Series (p. 39), we explore what meeting professionals can learn from online community managers about growing their attendance.