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EXHIBITIONS FORECAST


2012 q It isequallyimportant


to understand that the distinctions that separatehowsome indus- tries might be faring compared to others will similarly be reflected in how the trade shows in those sectors are performing. This is whymany, if not most, exhibitions serving the health-care sector are doing quite well, while events serving the government-serv- ices sector are lagging, due to the impact of government budget curtailments.


The Performance of Exhibition Industry vs.RealGDP


Year-On-Year Percentage Change


5 4 3 2 1


0% -1 -2 -3 -4 -5


4.2 2.7 3.3 2.4 1.9


that serve them. In the last year, the Center for Exhibition Indus- try Research (CEIR) modified thewayit analyzes exhibition indus- try performance and increasedthenumber of industry sectors that it monitors from 11 to 14 in order to provide even more accu- rate data. A recent CEIR media release touts the fact that for the first


six months of 2011, the performance of the exhibitions indus- try outpaced the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). In ordi- nary times this would be a remarkable achievement — but unfortunately these are extraordinary times, and the U.S. GDP was a paltry 1.9 percent, while the exhibitions industry per- formed at a growth rate of 2.4 percent. Even so, if you review industry performance in 2010 and 2011, you see a rather remarkable bounce back from some very challenging quarters. The chart pictured at left says it all. Whatis evenmoreevident is that volatility in the global and


-4.4 2010H1 2010H2 2011H1


 Overall Exhibition Industry  Real GDP


Likewise, while most events serving the information-tech-


nology sector are doing well, the samecannot be said for events serving the construction, home-building, and home-repair sec- tor—but no one should be surprised at this, given the dread- ful condition of the U.S. housing market. This is why generalizations about the condition of the U.S.


exhibitions and events industry are often unreliable. It is much more revealing to look at major industrial sectors and the events


68 pcmaconvene November 2011


U.S. economies is continuing, and any forecasts of future eco- nomic performance for almost any industry are subject to rapid and very unpredictable revision.What is indisputable, however, is that despite the ebbs andflows of the economyin recent years, the exhibitions and events industry continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience both here and abroad. Moreover, most knowledgeable industry analysts view the growth of digital media as a new source of strength for our industry—and not a poten- tial threat. The innovative use of digital communications chan- nels is extending the relevance of many trade shows and public events for weeks and months before and after the actual event. If you would like to compare the performance of your orga-


nization’s exhibitions against the aggregate performance of other events in your industry sector, take a look at the CEIR Index on p. 70. It can be an extremely revealing and useful manage- ment and planning tool. This year’s edition of the CEIR Index also includes sector forecasts for the first time. While the road ahead is likely to be anything but straight and


level, the exhibitions and events industry can be expected— based on its impressive track record—to continue its remark- able story of success. 


Steven Hacker, CAE, is president of the International Association of Exhibi- tions and Events (www.iaee.com).


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