COMMENT
The long-awaited Government confirmation that HS2 is to go ahead did not deter the project’s opponents, who are convinced it is a waste of money with few environmental benefits. RTM asked Julie Mills, of pro-HS2 research company Greengauge 21, to answer some of the common concerns over the route, Old Oak Common, and speed specifications.
he benefit-to-cost ratio of HS2 – the all-important figure projecting the likely economic gains per pound spent – has fallen steadily over time, and would fall further if a more sensible value was given to the monetary value of time spent by businesspeople on trains, opponents of the scheme say, rather than valuing it as essen- tially non-productive and thus worthless.
T
For the London-Birmingham stretch, it now sits at 1.7 (down from 2 a year ago), and for the Y network, it is estimated at between 1.8 and 2.5, down on the previous estimate of 2 to 3.4.
Some have called into question the very use of such calculations, which can only ever be very rough estimates, based on virtu- ally unknowable statistics inferred from possible future scenarios. They say that high-speed rail is simply a good thing in and of itself, and so justifies its cost even if the spending is never recouped, noting the freed-up capacity on the West Coast Main Line and other knock-on effects, and the wider social and cultural benefits of faster rail travel between our major cities.
Amalgamation
Some wonder whether, despite its scale, the entire Y-shaped network should have been considered as a single project, which does bump up the ratio significantly, as above: the London-Birmingham stretch alone would not be justified, even most HS2 backers would conclude, so it is strange that so many of the arguments about ‘phase one’ treat it as a standalone scheme, just because that is how the Government chose to package it.
The Government announcement in early January
2012 contained more
compromises and mitigation measures to reduce the impact on the countryside and noise pollution, but the alliance of action groups opposed to it, including many district and county councils, are committed to fighting it to the last, through the courts if necessary.
Julie Mills, of Greengauge 21, told RTM that despite the fact that some people would never agree that HS2 should go ahead, the Government and those backing the project
20 | rail technology magazine Feb/Mar 12
should always be open to talking about it.
Below: Old Oak Common
She said: “Clearly, some people are going to be against it; fair enough, that’s their right. But we think
there’s discussion
to be had, and I think for some of the objectors, there’s discussion to be had
with HS2 Ltd during the environmental impact assessment and through the hybrid bill process to make sure we get the best possible scheme and the impacts are mitigated. The communication should carry on; we should carry on discussing the case for HS2 and making clear what we think the benefits are, and helping people to engage constructively with the process, because there’s going to be challenges ahead for everybody.”
Speed and reliability
Many people – some with relevant knowledge, some without – have weighed in on the debate over the route, with all sorts of suggestions as to why their preferred vision would be better (often divorced from economic reality). Is Mills confident that, following so many
© Tom Anderson
© Ewan Munro
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