What happens now? 2012 OUTLOOK
24 | NEWS EXTRA WORDS | Geoff Hadwick
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outhern Europe. Linda Travella, founder of agency Casa Travella, which has been selling property in
Italy for 24 years:
“I see the market for buying property in Italy staying buoyant for the fi rst 2 quarters of 2012. We already have clients booking to view property for sale in Italy, in January, which is something that does not happen every year, as it is normally a quiet month. The last quarter of 2011 was the busiest it has been for 4 years with a surprising amount of enquires and sales of Italian property. These are not all coming from the UK … but from Russia, Canada, USA, Norway and Switzerland. The most buoyant market is from €350,000 to €500,000. And to obtain a reasonable capital return, clients should keep their Italian property for at least 5 years because there is no capital gains tax in Italy after 5 years. I think that UK clients that have been interested and viewed in the past will return to purchase as the sterling gets stronger against the Euro. If this continues through 2012, I feel that more UK clients may return in the middle and lower price bracket but I see the higher end of the market continuing to fare the best with UK and international clientele.” Elsewhere, “there will be a very mixed bag of markets with clients looking for bargains in Spain and fi nding them, and the American market seeing an improvement. France is fairly quiet with some good buys to be found on the Coté d’Azur. If you are feeling brave you could try Greece whilst Turkey has seen a downturn for the last 3 years, from which has not yet recovered.”
Cyprus. Maribeth Davies of Hamptons International: “Buyers of international property have become more educated … they are particularly wary of the risks of buying abroad and are now looking for ways to minimise any risk. We are expecting to see this behaviour continue into 2012 and would expect properties that offer the opportunity to generate a rental income to assist in covering costs and generate a profi t to be particularly popular. The most
sought after properties will be quality homes in easily accessible locations with access to tourist attractions such as beautiful beaches and leisure amenities. Cypriot weather permits year-round golfi ng and as such, properties on golf resorts which offer consistent rental potential are often seen as a sound investment. Hamptons’ research has also highlighted that Cyprus is one of the most popular destinations for UK overseas buyers and this interest has so far been unaffected by the European economic crisis. And the recent abolishment of transfer fees in Cyprus is an interesting incentive to prospective buyers and we expect this to stimulate demand over the fi rst six months of 2012.” Spain. Stephen Dight, managing
director of Mallorca Sotheby’s International Realty:
“In 2012 we expect a top down recovery, that is to say continual improvement in the top quality end of the market with a trickle-down effect spreading to the lower priced property. I also expect the European printed press and television media to bring closure to their antagonistic approach to Spanish property, an approach that has been very scattergun, painting all of Spain in a bad light regardless of quality or region. There is a vast disparity between someone buying a makeshift villa without the advice of a lawyer in Valencia and an informed buyer purchasing a luxury mansion in Mallorca. You simply can’t compare. The Spanish Government
www.opp.org.uk | JANUARY 2012
As the New Year gets underway, OPP has asked a selection of industry leaders from around the world, what they think 2012 might bring. There is a wide variety of opinions of course, but it is interesting to see that not everyone is preparing for more bad news. Do they think that the downturn has reached rock bottom yet?
Following | in the footsteps of earlier downturns won’t help you get through 2012
is also taking positive steps to restore confi dence in its property market, to stimulate growth, whereas before it at best ignored problems or at worst positively damaged the market with inconsistent and questionable practices. These practices are fi rmly in the past. I don’t have a crystal ball, but every recession is cyclical and as it comes to its inevitable end the Brits will return in numbers, the German buyers will return in droves and confi dence in Mallorca will be restored leaving it to emerge as strong as ever.” London. David Pollock, managing director of Greene & Co: “International buyers will continue to dominate the London market moving across to areas adjacent to prestigious postcodes that have good infrastructure and transportation links such as Belsize Park, Shoreditch, West Hampstead and Maida Vale. Among the prime central London areas, Clerkenwell has become a highly performing area. With the current expansion of Farringdon Station due to the incoming Cross Rail network, property prices have grown annually by six to eight per cent bringing prices back to the peak of 2007 with further gains to come. The rarity of loft and warehouse conversions in Clerkenwell and Shoreditch in an age of new build developments has meant prices are continuing to climb in light of rising demand as well. Cash buyers will also remain an important factor in 2012. Within the £400,000-£600,000 range, 25-30% of the agency’s customers are cash buyers who look to complete the full purchasing process within two weeks in order to secure their properties demonstrating how demand is intensifying for properties.” London. Lee Watts, managing director of Kinleigh Folkard & Hayward: “Overall, I anticipate 2012 to deliver a similar total of property transactions to 2011. I believe the fi rst half of 2012 will be considerably stronger than the second with early price gains eroded as the year goes on. We will see further demand in the sales market with an increased supply
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