Therapeutics
Figure 1
2010 to 20301. This means there will be nearly 32 million more elderly people in the US in 2030 than there are today. With this change in demo- graphics, markets in indications common among older populations will grow. These include heart disease, cancer, stroke, pulmonary disease, dia- betes and osteoporosis – diseases which favour a cell-based approach to renew, repair or replace damaged tissue and where regenerative medicine could contribute to vastly improved standards of care. Further, many of these diseases and disor- ders are associated with secondary conditions that are also strong candidates for new regenera- tive medicine therapies and represent large mar- kets, such as diabetic foot ulcers and chemother- apy-induced neutropenia.
As the elderly population increases in both per- centage and real terms, healthcare costs are expect- ed to rise both as a percentage of the federal budg- et as well as on a per capita basis. Annual health- care costs for people 65-74 is more than $10,000, a figure which is nearly four times greater than those in the 19-44 age range1. The aggregate cost impact of these two indicators will create substan- tial stress on the economy and personal finances, even before adjusting for inflation (Figure 1). Such population changes create a huge demand for ther- apies for chronic conditions, especially innovative treatments that improve the standard of care, reduce the physical disease burden and shift the cost curve.
Even without future projections, the current 34
market opportunity calculations for key regenera- tive medicine therapies are substantial. The direct costs associated with chronic diseases that could be addressed by regenerative medicine treatments in the US – late-stage Parkinson’s disease, new cases of spinal cord industry, heart failure, stroke and insulin-dependent diabetes –is approximately $250 billion a year2. The newest numbers released by the American Heart Association on heart fail- ure and stroke paint a similar picture. Not only is heart disease the leading cause of death in the US, but it is also responsible for 17% of national healthcare expenditures. When future estimates of disease incidence are included, the direct costs of all heart disease are projected to increase from $273 billion in 2010 to $818 billion in 20303. For heart failure and stroke – both central in regener- ative medicine research programmes – real med- ical costs are expected to increase by 200% and 238%, respectively, over the next 20 years4. These looming costs create both incentives and opportu- nities for public and private investment in cell- based medicine as the sector that has the strongest potential to shift long-term costs for such serious acute and chronic conditions.
Numerous companies are poised to deliver effec- tive therapies to this growing patient need. According to analysis done by the Cell Therapy Group, there are currently 275 therapeutic compa- nies with 240 cell-based therapies in clinical devel- opment or on the market. These numbers include 44 commercial products and 27 candidates in
Drug Discovery World Spring 2011
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