TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2010
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Politics & The Nation For more race analysis by Chris Cillizza, visit THE FIX at
washingtonpost.com/politics 5
Senate races to watch 1
MISSOURI: Te Show Me State was the lone swing state that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) managed to win in the 2008 presidential race — albeit by fewer than 4,000 votes out of more than 2.8 million cast. Democrats think Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is one of their strongest candidates in the country, but recent polling gives Rep. Roy Blunt (R) a single-digit edge.
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NEVADA: Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D) was widely regarded as politically dead as recently as a few months ago. But that was before controversial former state assemblywoman Sharron Angle won the Republican Senate nomination. Reid has relentlessly bashed Angle — on Social Security, among other topics — for the past several months, and the race now appears to be a dead heat.
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COLORADO: Plucked from political obscurity when he was appointed to the Senate last year, Michael Bennet (D) beat back a more-serious-than-expected primary challenge but still faces electoral peril in a state that is trending back to Republicans aſter Democratic dominance in the past two elections. Weld County prosecutor Ken Buck upset the establish- ment favorite in the Republican primary.
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FLORIDA: Te Sunshine State — already famous for its close and contested races up and down the ballot — is holding a three-way contest between Rep. Kendrick Meek (D), former state House speaker Marco Rubio (R) and Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running as an independent. Crist has hinted that he will caucus with Senate Democrats if he wins, which has complicated Meek’s efforts to rally the party behind him.
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WISCONSIN: At the start of the 2010 election cycle, Sen. Russell Feingold (D) was on no one’s target list. But as the state’s economy continues to sputter and President Obama’s popularity sinks, Feingold has watched his own political peril grow. Republicans will nominate wealthy Oshkosh businessman Ron Johnson, a political newcomer, as their candidate.
- ABC News poll
Poll reveals growing discontent with Democrats, government Q:If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives in November were being held today, would you vote for the ... in your congressional district?
Whom will they vote for? AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS
Republican candidate Democratic candidate
Other/Neither/Would not vote/ No opinion
8
47% 45
AMONG LIKELY VOTERS NOW
74 51%
53% 40 11 38 AMONG INDEPENDENTS
2006 (exit poll) 39%
57 5 What do they say is important? Q:
How important will … be in your vote for Congress this year?
Te economy Health care
Budget deficit Taxes
Te way Washington is working Afghanistan
Local issues where you live Immigration
11 9
12 8 12 Whom do they trust? Q: 45% 40% 44 38 43
Which political party, the Democrats or the Republicans, do you trust to do a better job handling … ?
REPUBLICANS 39 42 35 11% R D R D
TaxesBudget deficit
EconomyImmigra- tion
Afghanistan
Health care
Country’s main problems
Is Obama a factor?
20 30 40 50 60 70
For the first time, more people disapprove than approve of the job Obama is doing: 68%
25% February 2009:
FM AJ JA SO JF M AJ JA Now:
Approve: 46% Disapprove: 52%
13 15 15 DEMOCRATSNEITHER 41 39 40 42 38 40 18 12 13 Obama administration 42%
No real effect
55 31% 19 15 69
65 64
61 76
One of most important Percent saying important
93% 82 (Among registered voters) Q:
Regardless of how you might vote in your own congressional district, do you think it’s more important to have the Democrats in charge of Congress, to help support Obama’s policies, or to have the Republicans in charge of Congress, to act as a check on Obama’s policies?
ALL VOTERS 55% 39% 33% in charge in charge Whom do they blame? Q:
How much blame do you think … deserves for the country's economic situation?
Percent of all adults saying a "great deal" or "good amount":
George W. Bush administration
60% Worse
Better 33% 30%
36%
No opinion 1%
Traditionally, turnout in midterm elections is far lower than in presidential years. Tat dropoff puts the onus on both parties’ political bases — the most dependable voters — to vote for their side. Polling conducted in targeted states and nationally suggests that Republicans have a significant enthusiasm edge and are therefore that more likely to vote in November.
4 MM MONEY Is history a predictor? Te president’s party has lost House seats in all but two of the past 14 midterm elections. It has tended to lose more seats when the president’s September approval rating was lower than 50 percent. Obama’s approval rating is 46 percent. Dwight D. Eisenhower
APPROVAL RATING
HOUSE
Seats gained Seats lost
-18 SENATE
Seats gained Seats lost
-1 -13 *For August before he resigned the presidency. Gerald Ford’s approval rating in September 1974 was 66%. -48 +3 -4 -47 +2 -5 -3 -48 +1 -8 -1 -8 -4 -12 -5 -15 -26 -52 0 +2 -6 SOURCE: Gallup Poll for data 1954 through 1978; Washington Post-ABC News poll for data 1982 through 2010. -8 -30
In 2008, Barack Obama won independent voters, who made up nearly 30 percent of the electorate, by eight percentage points — a critical piece of his national victory. Two years later, however, Obama's appeal among independents has faded badly, with most — 57 percent — now disapproving of the job he is doing, according to the new Post-ABC poll.
5 House races to watch 12
COLORADO’S 3RD: State Rep. Scott Tipton (R) has run for this seat before, losing to Rep. John Salazar (D) 62 percent to 37 percent in 2006. Tipton is back for a rematch and is hoping that the swing nature of this Western Slope seat, which supported Sen. John McCain by two points in the 2008 presidential election, will put him in a position to pull off an upset. With Colorado a major focus of both national parties, this race could signal just how strongly the state has moved away from President Obama.
IOWA’S 3RD: Rep. Leonard L. Boswell (D) has been a target before in this Des Moines area district and has always managed to survive. But he faces a difficult political environment and has always been something of a mismatch for this suburban seat. State Sen. Brad Zaun upset the party establishment pick in the Republican primary but has struggled somewhat to raise money, giving Democrats hope that Boswell can hold on.
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MISSOURI’S 4TH: Rep. Ike Skelton (D) won this rural seat the same year Jimmy Carter was elected president. Te district, in central-west Missouri, has gone resoundingly Republican in the past two presidential elections, and Republicans have finally recruited a serious candidate — in the form of former state representative Vicki Hartzler — against Skelton.
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NEVADA’S 3RD: Freshman Rep. Dina Titus (D) has President Obama to thank for her five-point victory two years ago in this Las Vegas suburban district. But without the Obama surge vote and with the state’s unemployment rate the highest in the nation, Titus faces a tall task to win a second term. Republicans have recruited former state senator Joe Heck to the contest.
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PENNSYLVANIA’S 8TH: Democrats made their gains in 2006 and 2008 largely in suburban territory. And Bucks County is case study No. 1 for how those areas have shiſted to the Democratic column in recent years. Rep. Patrick J. Murphy (D) used those shiſts to edge an incumbent Republican in 2006 and win easily in 2008, as the district went by nine points for President Obama. Murphy faces a rematch from 2006, against former congressman Mike Fitzpatrick (R).
SOURCE: Washington Post-ABC News poll. Te new poll was conducted by telephone Aug. 30-Sept. 2 among a random national sample of 1,004 adults including users of both conventional and cellular phones. Results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
THE WASHINGTON POST
1954 65%
1958 John F.
Kennedy 1962
56%67%
Lyndon B. Johnson
1966
Richard M. Nixon
1970 46%55%
Jimmy Carter
1974*19781982 24%
45%
Ronald Reagan
1986 48%67% George
H.W. Bush 1990
1994 75%46% Bil Clinton
1998 57
+5
George W. Bush
2002 2008 71%42% +8
Democrats have spent the past 20 months working to build a financial firewall that can protect them from the onrushing Republican challenges. At the end of July, the three Democratic campaign committees held cash-on-hand edges over their Republican counterparts. Te central question is whether that money advantage can stem the GOP momentum as the fall campaign begins in earnest.
5 INDEPENDENTS Q:
Do you think Obama's economic program is making the economy … ?
GOP Dems in charge in charge GOP Dems
Economists dismiss the unemployment rate as an overly simplistic assessment of the relative strength or weakness of the economy. But it is an easily consumable number that most Americans use to gauge how the financial ship of state is doing. Te 9.6 percent unemployment rate — a slight upward tick from July — is worrisome for Democrats, who had hoped the economy might be showing signs of life as summer turns to fall.
3 ENTHUSIASM GAP
INDEPENDENTS 59%
2
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Indicators that matter
1 GENERIC BALLOT
Te best way to measure which way — and how strong — the political winds are blowing nationally is the “generic ballot” question (would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your district?). A GOP tilt on this question is rare, and the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll has registered voters split 47 percent for Republicans and 45 percent for Democrats. Likely voters prefer the GOP by a 13-point margin.
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