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Politics & The Nation
EZ RE
KLMNO
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2010 Political geography: Mapping the midterms
Which party will win control of the House and Senate in November? Republicans have the momentum heading into the post-Labor Day crunch, as the GOP has neutralized Democratic advantages on the issues, President Obama’s ratings have faded, and dissatisfaction with the government now surpasses its 1994 levels. Seventy-two percent of voters disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job, a16-year high.
ANALYSIS by Chris Cillizza, DanBalz,Felicia Sonmez,Aaron Blake, Jon Cohen and Kyle Dropp |GRAPHICS by LauraStanton, Karen Yourish and Gene Torp
Balance of power
Democrats not up for reelection
SENATE KEY
40
Safe Dem.
6
Lean Dem.
2
Toss- up
12
Seats needed to control Senate 51
WASHINGTON
Safe Democrat Lean Democratic Toss-up Lean Republican Safe Republican Notupfor reelection
1 $
Five races to watch. See next page for details.
Candidates who have raised the most in competitive races
CALIFORNIA NORTH DAKOTA OREGON IDAHO
$19.2 million
Senate Majority Leader HarryM.Reid (D)
NEVADA 2
UTAH 3 COLORADO KANSAS
$18.9 million
ARIZONA Sen. Barbara Boxer(D) OKLAHOMA ARKANSAS GEORGIA ALABAMA 1 MISSOURI KENTUCKY
NORTH CAROLINA
CAROLINA
Marco Rubio (R) $12.8
million LOUISIANA ALASKA 4 FLORIDA HAWAII Te big issues ECONOMY
Te economydoesn’t just top the list of issues shapingthe political environment this fall. It dominates that list.Earlier,the administration came up with the phrase “recoverysummer”to highlight the progress the economyhas made since President Obama took office. Since then the economyhas hit another rocky patch. Te jobs reportreleased Fridayshowed the unemployment rate tickingupto9.6 percent.Inthe second quarter,the economy grew at arate of just 1.6 percent,adownwardrevision from initial estimates and slower than in the first quarter.Teadministration’s stimulus package prevented the downturn from becomingeven worse, accordingtothe Congressional Budget Office. But the public’s view of the stimulus is far less positive.
Te economy’simpact can be seen in races across the country. Nevada,hit hardbythe foreclosurecrisis, now has the nation’s highest unemployment rate. In California,the downturn has contributed to the state’senormous economic and budgetary problems and affected statewide races there. In Ohio,anti-free-trade sentiment and the decline of manufacturingjobs color keystatewide contests and aseries of competitive House races.
IMMIGRATION
Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer’s signingofthe nation's strictest immigration bill stirred anational debate about the issue. While Republican strategists fret that it could damage the party's relationship with Hispanic votersin the longterm, the short-term political gains have all been on the GOP side, as pollingsuggests that amajority of votersback the Arizona law. Brewer is aprime example of how the bill has benefited Republicans: Shewent from deeply vulnerable to asolid favorite this fall in her race against state AttorneyGeneral Terry Goddard.
HEALTH CARE
Rep. LorettaSanchez (D-Calif.) said her vote in March in favor of the health-carebill was“probably the most difficult”ofher career —and she could paythe price in November. Republican Scott Brown's win in a special Senate election in Massachusetts early this year forced Democrats to rethink their health-carestrategy, but they wound up gettingthe bill through the House and makingchanges aſterward. Most recent pollingshows that the lawcontinues to be controversial, and anew Washington Post-ABC News poll has votersabout evenly split on whether to trust Democrats or Republicans on health care. Just six months ago, Democrats had a double-digit lead on the issue.
SPENDING
“Reckless government spending” is aperennial issue for Republicans, but in acycle in which candidates arebeingtargeted for their votes on the Troubled Assets Relief Program, the stimulus plan and the health-careoverhaul, incumbents in both parties areat risk —and the ascendancy of the “tea party” movement only increases the pressure. Watch the Senate race in Missouri,where SecretaryofState Robin Carnahan (D) has hammered Rep. RoyBlunt (R)for his TARP vote. Will Blunt follow Sen. RobertF. Bennett (R-Utah), who wasousted by his party earlier this year for supportingTARP?
Gov.Charlie Crist (I) $12.5
million SOUTH ILLINOIS PENNSYLVANIA IOWA OHIO INDIANA VIRGINIA WEST MD. DEL. SOUTH DAKOTA 5 WISCONSIN
RobPortman (R) $12.7
million VT. N.H.
NEW YORK
CONN.
Lean Rep.
5 Safe
Republican 12
Republicans not up for reelection
23
HOUSE KEY
UnopposedDemocrats
Democratic incumbents facing challengers Open seats
Republican incumbents facing challengers UnopposedRepublicans
1 $
Five racestowatch. Seenextpagefor details.
Candidates who have raised the most in competitive races
CALIFORNIA NEBRASKA NEVADA MISSOURI UTAH 4 1 COLORADO KANSAS 3 KENTUCKY OKLAHOMA ARIZONA NEW MEXICO GEORGIA LOUISIANA TEXAS ALASKA
Formoredetail and historic results, go to
washingtonpost.com/politics.
HAWAII $2.6 million Rep. Chet Edwards(D)
Unopposed Democrats
15 Democratic
incumbents facing challengers 220
Balance of power
Open seats
43
Seats needed to control House 218
FLORIDA $3.7 million Rep. Alan Grayson (D) Republican
incumbents facing challengers 122
Unopposed Republicans
35 $4 million Allen West (R) MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA ARKANSAS TENNESSEE CAROLINA SOUTH ILLINOIS VIRGINIA VIRGINIA
NORTH CAROLINA
WEST OREGON IDAHO WYOMING IOWA 2 MICHIGAN INDIANA OHIO PENNSYLVANIA N.J. MD. DEL. $2.7
million Rep.
Patrick J. Murphy(D)
SOUTH DAKOTA WISCONSIN
WASHINGTON MONTANA NORTH DAKOTA MINNESOTA $2.6
million Rep. Jim Himes (D)
VT.
NEW YORK
N.H. MASS. CONN. R.I. 5 MAINE
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