TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2010


KLMNO Poll shows GOP gaining ground before midterms poll from A1


the poll shows that the party has made big gains in the public’s estimation since earlier this year. Among all voters, 47 percent


say they would back the Republi- canintheir congressional district if the election were held now, while 45 percent would vote for the Democrat. Any GOP advan- tage on this question has been rare in past years — and among thosemost likely to vote this fall, the Republican advantage swells to 53 percent to the Democrats’ 40 percent. Voters were also asked wheth-


er they think it ismore important to have Democrats in charge of Congress to help support the president’s policies or to have Republicans incontrol to serve as a check on Obama’s agenda. Here, 55 percent say they prefer Republicans, while 39 percent choose Democrats. The GOP’s 16-point edge is double what it was in July. Obama’s overall job rating is at


a new low in Post-ABC polling, with just 46 percent of all Ameri- cans giving him positive marks and 52 percent negative ones. On two big issues, disapproval of the president’s performance has reached new highs: Fifty-seven percent now disapprove of his handling of the economy and 58 percent give him low marks on dealing with the deficit. The survey was taken during a


week when Obama marked the end of U.S. combat operations in Iraq. Overall, 49 percent say they approve of his work on the war, while 45 percent disapprove. Those numbers have not changed much from July but represent a


large drop fromearly 2009,when he announced the plan to end combatmissions in Iraq. It’s not just perceptions of


Obama’s job performance that have shifted during his presiden- cy as political polarization has stiffened. Today, Americans di- vide about evenly on whether he understands their problems and shares their values. Forty-five percent now consid-


er the president’s views on most issues “too liberal,” another new high. In previous polls dating to early 2008, consistent majorities said they found Obama’s posi- tions “just about right” ideologi- cally. For the first time, amajority—


53 percent — of respondents say the president has not brought needed change to Washington, one of hismajor campaign prom- ises. The poll findings highlight one


of the most significant problems for Obama and Democrats head- ing into fall: a steep erosion in support among independent vot- ers. In 2008, Obama won inde- pendents by eight percentage points. In 2006, independents broke for Democratic House can- didates by an unprecedented 18- pointmargin. Independents’ disapproval of


the president has reached an all-time high, with 57 percent giving him negative marks. About 61 percent of indepen-


6 on postpolitics.com


Check out the full polling data, as well as polling director


Jon Cohen’s assessment of some of the findings.


dents sayObama has not brought change to Washington. Nearly half now consider him“too liber- al” ideologically. Overall, by a 13-point margin,


independent voters say they would support Republican over Democratic candidates in their House districts. A majority of independents—59 percent—say theywould prefer to have Repub- licans in charge of Congress to serve as a check on the presi- dent’s agenda. Just 34 percent of all voters —


and 27 percent of independent voters — say most Democrats in Congress deserve to be reelected. Four years ago, a month before Democrats won control of the House, 55 percent of all voters said most Democratic represen- tatives deserved another term. Still, voters are just as unen-


thusiastic about Republican in- cumbents.Barely 31 percent of all voters and independents alike say most GOP lawmakers have earned another term. Nor do many voters credit the


opposition with a distinct mes- sage: Forty-five percent say Re- publicans are offering the coun- try a clear direction that is differ- ent from that of the Democrats, while 48 percent say they are not. Negative views of the federal


government have jumped higher this year, with 78 percent of voters saying they are dissatisfied or angry about the wayWashing- ton works. That’s more anti-gov- ernment sentiment than at any point in 1994, when Republicans won back control of Congress, and the most to say so since the fall of 1992. Deteriorating views of the economy are a prime culprit.


Since June, there has been an eight-point jump in the number ofAmericanswho think the econ- omy is worsening and a parallel six-point slide in the numberwho say things are improving. Fifty- three percent say the economy is in “poor” shape, the first time a majority has said so since early April. The survey was completed be-


fore the release of Friday’s jobs report, which showed the unem- ployment rate ticking up to 9.6 percent but also somewhat bet- ter-than-expected growth in pri- vate-sector jobs. A third of all Americans say


Obama’s policies are making things worse economically, up seven points from April to its highest level. And the number who point the finger at Obama for economic stagnation is also on the rise, with 42 percent saying the administration de- serves a great deal or a good amount of blame for the state of the economy, up 15 points froma year ago. Democrats can point to the


even higher numbers of people who continue to blame the George W. Bush administration for the country’s economic prob- lems, although that number—60 percent—is creeping downward. The poll was conducted by


telephone Aug. 30 to Sept. 2 among a randomnational sample of 1,002 adults. Results from the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. balzd@washpost.com cohenj@washpost.com


Assistant polling analyst Kyle Dropp contributed to this report.


Races inWisconsin reflectDemocrats’ anxieties democrats from A1 Even if Republicans do not win


enough seats to wrest control of Congress, they appear poised to increase theirnumbersenough to block Democratic bills and all but halt President Obama’s agenda. This political turmoil is on full


display in Wisconsin.There are at least two DemocraticHouse seats at stake and also a close race to succeed retiring Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle. But the real surprise here is


that Feingold, whose reelection to a fourth term had once been considered a lock, is in a tight race.He is one of threeDemocrat- ic senators unexpectedly in that predicament, and in large part because of the hostile political climate nationally. Barbara Boxer in California and PattyMurray in Washington are also struggling to keep their seats. Midterm elections have often


been an early indicator of larger turns in the direction of the country—anda (sometimes spot- ty) predictor of presidential con- tests that follow two years later. In 2010, Democrats are burdened with a bad economy for which they are at least partially blamed, an increasingly unpopular presi- dent whose policies they backed and a turbocharged opposition thatwon’t let voters forget, either. “I don’t think there’s been a


door more open for an opposition party to do well—certainly better than 1994,” the last time the Republicans took control of both houses, said David Winston, a pollster who advises the House Republican leadership. The White House is rushing to


put together a package of tax cuts that would encourage businesses to step up hiring. Also on the agenda is a congressional debate over whether to extend the Bush- era tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans — a fight that leaders of both parties insist would work in their favor. But Democrats know they have


little chance of seeingwhat would help them most: a dramatic im- provement in the economy before November. And public support has not materialized as they had hoped it would for their signature achievement, an overhaul of the health-care system. So they are trying to convince


skeptical voters that Democratic economic policies, such as the $814 billion stimulus package, are working, although not as fast as anyone would like; to blame the Republicans for having caused the problem in the first place; and to warn of the conse- quences of a return to those policies. If voters are dismissive ofDem-


ocrats, polls show that they aren’t exactly sold on Republicans, ei- ther, given memories of how the party governed the last time it was in power. In coming weeks, House Re- publican leader John A. Boehner (Ohio), the speaker in waiting, plans to unveil a blueprint of what his party would do if it regains a majority. But it is not


ALEX WONG/GETTY IMAGES


Sen.Russell Feingold (D), shown speaking to Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), says his home state of Wisconsin “is a classic purple state. It will always be affected by national trends either way.”


clear whether that message will have much impact, or even whether Republican candidates will want to line up behind it. ManyGOPcampaign consultants are advising their candidates sim- ply to stay on the attack and avoid getting trippedupby deep discus- sions of issues and policy. Although the parties are trying


to set the broad themes of this election, it is also a collection of unique contests: for all 435House seats, as well as for 37 governor- ships and 36 Senate seats. “There’s a big wave coming,”


said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. “The question is, are individual candidates building high enough walls to protect themselves from that wave?” Wisconsin was not a place


where Democrats had anticipat- ed a breach. Obama carried the state by 14 points in 2008, and it has sent only Democrats to the Senate since Feingold’s first elec- tion, in 1992. The senator is also known for his independence from his party. He opposed Obama’s decision to send more troops to Iraq and a financial regulatory bill that he said did not go far enough. But Wisconsin has traditional-


ly been closely divided political territory, Feingold said; he is in trouble in large part because voters associate him with their frustration about the economy and the mess inWashington. “It’s a classic purple state,” Feingold said. “It will always be affected by


national trends either way.” Feingold’s probable Republi-


can challenger, who jumped into the race inMay and is favored to win the party primary on Sept. 14, seems well cast for a year in which claims of political inexpe- rience are often an asset. “Sixteen weeks ago, I was you. I


am you,” business executive Ron Johnson told a few dozen Rotary Club members last week in the Milwaukee suburb ofMequon. This particular everyman,


however, is a multimillionaire plastics manufacturer who al- ready has spent $4 million on television advertising, nearly three times more than Feingold has. Yet for all that is going against


the Democrats this year, they have some advantages. One difference from 1994 is


that this time they saw early on what was coming. Feingold has built a formidable campaign op- eration, with 16 field offices and a vast network of workers. This year’s Democrats also are,


by and large, better financed than their Republican opponents — and most of that campaign mon- ey has yet to be spent. But with so many seats in play,


there won’t be enough money for Democrats to defend themselves across the map, or for Republi- cans and their allies to take ad- vantage of every opportunity. Ul- timately, some candidates, in- cluding incumbents, will have to be left for dead so that the parties


can spend where it might still make a difference. The National Republican Con-


gressional Committee an- nounced plans to reserve televi- sion ad time in 41 districts, all but one currently represented by Democrats. The Democratic Con- gressional Campaign Committee has dibs on time in 60 districts— 90 percent of which are held by Democrats. Count on those ads to be even


more brutal than usual, as evi- denced by what both sides have done so far. Where candidates’ early ads are usually upbeat, the spots this year have been almost 60 percent negative, said Evan Tracey, who tracks ads for the CampaignMedia Analysis Group. Even as Johnson brands Fein-


gold an “out-of-touch Washing- ton insider,” the senator has at- tacked his opponent over revela- tions that Johnson’s company took low-interest government loans. For voters, “this is going to be a decision between two people,” Feingold said. “But it’s also based on what’s going on in the coun- try.” In the tense weeks ahead, Fein-


gold and his endangered col- leagues will be doing everything they can to make that decision much more about the first than the second.


tumultyk@washpost.com


Research editor Alice Crites contributed to this report.


EZ SU FOR CONGRESS


LEADERSHIP SCENARIOS


BY SHAILAGHMURRAY


What (if anything) will get done in Washington next year? That depends largely on which party is in charge


of Congress. Democrats could lose one or both sides of the Capitol—or retain control of both. A look at the possibilities:


1.


Republicans win the House, Democrats keep the Senate


The outcome most likely to result in gridlock. Rep. John A. Boehner (R-Ohio), asHouse speaker, would preside over an expanded bloc of conservative Republicans and an agenda that could include further tax cuts, an attempt to repeal or modify the health-care reform law, a rollback ofWall Street regulations, and the return of unspent stimulus funds—all of which Democrats, and the president, would fight. The GOP would regain control of committees, and Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), likely to become chairman of the powerfulHouse oversight committee, would launch wide-ranging hearings into White House policies and use his subpoena power to call administration officials to testify (just as Democrats did with Bush officials).House GOP leaders could seek ambitious entitlement and tax reforms but would be rebuffed by the Democratic Senate, whereMajority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) or his successor would emerge as President Obama’s most important ally.


2.


Republicans win the Senate, Democrats keep the House


This intriguing, if unlikely, scenario would pit the newSenate


majority leader,MitchMcConnell (R-Ky.), againstHouse Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)—two perennially underestimated masters of the inside game.McConnell would face the mighty task of herding a divergent GOP caucus that could include unpredictable newcomers such as Rand Paul, the libertarian and “tea party” favorite. Sixty would still be the magic number of votes needed needed to head off a bill-blocking filibuster, andMcConnell would be forced to scrounge and bargain his way through the depleted, demoralized (and downright hostile) Democratic ranks to patch together support for the energy industry incentives and trade deals on his to-do list. In theHouse, Pelosi would face pressure from moderate Democrats


to ditch liberal priorities such as climate change that nearly sunk the party at the ballot box, and to cut deals with the Senate. Pelosi has said she wants to push ahead with an overhaul of the nation’s immigration laws, but agreement between the parties on that volatile issue would probably be dead until after 2012.


3.


Republicans win the House and Senate


If the GOP runs the table inNovember, it could take months of


internal battling to sort out which version of the party will emerge as dominant: the old-school Republican establishment or the more ideological and rigid newguard. Possible priorities for an all-Republican Congress could include the


termination of stimulus funding and the repeal of part or all of the newhealth-care lawalong with major changes to Social Security, including raising the retirement age. A Republican-led Congress would turn Obama’s veto pen—or the


threat of it—into a powerful weapon.Moderate Democrats such as Sens. ClaireMcCaskill (Mo.),Mark Pryor (Ark.),MarkWarner (Va.) and JamesWebb (Va.) could gain extraordinary leverage as dealmakers courted by leaders of both parties.


4.


Democrats retain control of the House and Senate


The shock of nearly losing power after just four years would be


certain to temper the Democrats’ legislative ambition. The most chastened Democrats would be liberals who fought for the health-care and climate-change bills that distracted Congress from the jobs agenda voters say they would have preferred. In the Senate, “control” could be especially difficult to exercise. It


was already tough for Reid to win over enough Republicans on contentious votes to head off GOP fillibuster threats. With even fewer Democrats, it would become even harder—although the newGOP class may include a crop of moderates such asMark Kirk of Illinois andMichaelN. Castle of Delaware, along with independent Charlie Crist of Florida, who could prove amenable to bipartisanship. In theHouse, the voting balance might change very little even with


a larger number of Republicans. Assuming Democratic losses were mainly in conservative districts, Pelosi would lose members who were already tough to keep in line on difficult votes.


murrays@washpost.com


A5


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