back would consign Trump to lame-duck status in the last two years of his presidency.
REALITY VOTE Trump would remain a power- ful figure on the global stage, to be sure. But losing either the House or the Senate would mark the unofficial sounding of the starter’s pistol for the 2028 presi- dential race. Presidential contenders
would begin jostling for the media spotlight, and the fo- cus would soon drift off the current commander in chief. The ultimate result for both parties: less time spent on the essential job of reforming federal governance and more time spent on political games- manship. No MAGA-loving Republi-
can wants to see a repeat of what happened in the 2018 midterms, when Democrats bounced back after Trump’s 2016 victory to capture the House, then initi- ated a series of probes and im- peachments. But history sug- gests it could happen. Of the 20 midterm elections
held in the post-WWII era, the sitting president’s party has suf- fered a net loss in House seats 18 times. The average midterm shift
from the party controlling the White House is about 25 House seats — more than enough to re- vive the specter of impeachment in a House controlled by Demo- crats. The typical number of seats the ruling party will lose in the Senate stands at about four. Despite the GOP’s stun-
ning success in 2024 and the bumbling attempts of Demo- crats thus far to plug the holes in their leaking ship of state, if history is an indicator, the odds are long that a divided MAGA base could hold onto
68 NEWSMAX | AUGUST 2025
the House and the Senate. About 60% of eligible voters
cast ballots in presidential elec- tion years, but that falls to about 40% for midterms. Voters frus- trated by their party’s defeat in a prior election are naturally quite motivated. That’s why party unity and
passion are so important in U.S. midterm elections: Without a highly motivated and energized political base, Trump’s support- ers may never get to the polls. Democrats are already lean-
ing into the midterm elections. In a July swing through red-state South Carolina, California Gov. Gavin Newsom told a coffee shop crowd that he wants to lead Democrats to a victorious come- back next year. “My message to all of you is
this presidency will end with you and the House of Represen- tatives in 2026,” Newsom de- clared. If Democrats control either
the House or the Senate, inves- tigations, hearings, and choreo- graphed leaks to wound Trump politically would be sure to fol- low. A thousand Lilliputians would emerge from the bureau- cratic swamp to enmesh the Trump presidency in a seem- ingly endless series of proce- dural snares, hurting not only Trump’s legacy, but MAGA’s. That’s why, Blackwell says,
“The only way Trump’s coalition stays in place is if we are able to keep the House and not lose the Senate. That’s just a political re- ality.”
The bombing of Iran’s nucle-
ar infrastructure may have been the first challenge to MAGA solidarity, but a look at the myr- iad hot spots and conflagrations Trump inherited from former President Joe Biden strongly suggests it won’t be the last. Beyond Iran and the bloody war in Ukraine, there are the
Russian threats against the Bal- kans and Eastern Europe, Hez- bollah and Hamas plotting to annihilate Israel, and unstable regimes such as Yemen and Syr- ia that are teetering throughout the Middle East. Add to that list China’s ongo-
ing preparations to overwhelm the democratic island of Taiwan by 2027 and Trump’s challenge is clear. When Trump’s next big geopolitical hot spot flares up, how many erstwhile MAGA members will balk on behalf of nonintervention? As Trump prepares to “Fight!
Fight! Fight!” for MAGA’s fu- ture, he has two big advantages. One is Democrats’ unchanged messaging after being seriously scolded by voters at the ballot box in November. Neither me- dia gaslighting nor “No Kings” rhetoric could hide the fact that Democrat standard-bearers — Ocasio-Cortez, Newsom, and New York City mayoral candi- date Zohran Mamdani — were continuing to espouse “woke” policies that U.S. voters already said they didn’t want, including open borders, defunding police, transgenderism, free bus rides, publicly owned grocery stores in New York City, and a $30 mini- mum wage. Donald J. Trump’s other
advantage in his quest to lever- age MAGA to establish a new golden age in America is him- self. Trump is simply a singular political figure who has rewrit- ten the U.S. political playbook in the era of social media. And if Trump can keep MAGA united through 2028, the man who in- vented MAGA could also be the one who saves it. At the National Prayer Break-
fast in the nation’s capital in February, Trump remarked: “I hope my greatest legacy, when it’s all finished, will be known as a peacemaker and a unifier.”
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