World


and perhaps even withdraw from the alliance, and that NATO itself would be unlikely to survive without Ameri- can leadership and backing. Nothing he has seen since Trump’s inauguration, he said in a recent inter- view, had changed his view. For America’s most-trusted Euro-


pean allies, Trump’s threats and cha- otic, often contradictory policy pro- nouncements initially created shock — without the awe. But his conciliatory posture


Can NATO Survive Without America?


Experts unsure the alliance could win a war against


Russia, writes Judith Miller. P


resident donald j. trump failed to achieve his often repeated preelection vow to end Russia’s war against


Ukraine “in 24 hours,” but the 47th president still accomplished some- thing extraordinary. In less than three months, he called


into question the security architec- ture that not only has deterred Rus- sian aggression, but also kept Europe relatively peaceful and prosperous for over 75 years through 14 different administrations, including his own first term. The U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization, an alliance of 31 Euro- pean nations plus Canada, has been the backbone of Europe’s defense since its creation in the ashes of World War II 80 years ago. But Trump’s hostility toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his enigmatic embrace of Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and


48 NEWSMAX | MAY 2025


his threats to abandon the alliance and refusal to defend America’s NATO allies “if they don’t pay” have prompted European leaders to think the previously unthinkable: Must Europe prepare to defend itself with- out American support? And given America’s tradition-


al leadership, is Europe capable of doing so? Experts are divided over whether


Europe could truly go it alone. John E. Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who is cur- rently a senior director at the Atlan- tic Council, argues that both Ukraine and Europe are capable of defending themselves — if they can marshal the political will. But Alexander Vershbow, a for-


mer deputy secretary general of NATO, is skeptical. Writing in Foreign Affairs maga-


zine last May, before Trump’s reelec- tion, he and two coauthors warned that Trump was likely to downgrade,


toward Moscow, coupled with Rus- sia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, goad- ed Europeans — finally — to spend more on their own defense. Soon after Trump’s inauguration,


U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that Britain would raise military spending from 2.3% of gross national product to 2.5% by 2027, the largest increase in military spending since the Cold War, three years faster than initially planned. By 2030, he vowed, Britain would


spend 3% of GDP, almost what Washington spends. Denmark, too, pledged to increase


its military investments, with Dan- ish Prime Minister Mette Frederik- sen instructing her defense minister to “buy, buy, buy.” Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine


in 2022 was the initial catalyst for Europe’s reversal of its longstanding military free riding. Two years earlier, only nine


NATO members were spending 2% of their GDP on defense. By last year, 21 members had hit the 2% target. Poland, which shares a histori-


cally contested border with Russia, has doubled its defense budget since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and says it will spend 4.7% of its GDP on the military this year. Germany, Europe’s largest indus-


Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was the initial catalyst for Europe’s reversal of its longstanding military free riding.


MAP/ROKAS TENYS/SHUTTERSTOCK


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