Bedfordshire Chamber of Commerce
Positive action is needed now
As our economic research and analysis shows, the UK economy has suff ered an enormous shock since March 2020. While the fi gures speak for themselves, they cannot convey the cold, hard reality of life as a business owner over the past 18 months. While some businesses have been able to innovate and fi nd a way through these diffi cult times, others have found themselves eating away at cash reserves just to keep their heads above water. As we emerge from 15 months of restrictions which have seen huge
swathes of business communities closed entirely, or operating with restricted capacity and depleted demand, positive action is needed to enable businesses of all sectors, shapes and sizes to accelerate their recovery and return the UK to growth and prosperity. Recovery from the pandemic is not the only challenge that
businesses face: skills shortages, rising costs and the climate challenge were all issues top of the mind for business before the crisis hit. In rebuilding our economy, we must take the opportunity to not only recover from the damage caused by the pandemic, but to also begin to tackle these long-standing issues which have remained unresolved for too long.
Latest economic analysis Despite recent improvements, official data confirms that UK
Justin Richardson CEO
Bedfordshire Chamber of Commerce
economic output remains well below the pre- pandemic levels. Businesses have been through an incredibly diffi cult period, particularly in sectors such as leisure and hospitality, which have been, essentially, closed by law. In general, within each sector, smaller businesses have fared worse than larger ones (as with Brexit). However, we are starting to see the return of
some business confi dence, linked to the vaccine rollout and the reopening of the economy. Assuming there is no resurgence of the virus that forces governments to impose further restrictions on businesses and communities, the fi rst quarter decline in UK economic output should be followed by a robust rebound in economic activity in the second quarter, as the effects of the release of pent-up demand as restrictions ease and the strong vaccine rollout are felt. While the short-term outlook for the UK
economy is robust, now is not the time for complacency. This rebound is likely to fade as the economic scarring caused by the pandemic starts to crystalise with the winding down of government support. T e recovery is also likely to be dramatically uneven across diff erent sectors, locations and groups of people. T e extension of the Coronavirus Job Retention
Scheme will mean that the peak in job losses is lower than in recent recessions. Unemployment remains on course to peak towards the end of 2021, once the furlough scheme expires and those who
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ALL THINGS BUSINESS
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