Loss analysis Main category: Non residential miscellaneous Sub category: Private garages


Jan 2009 to Dec 2018: During this period, large loss fires in non residential miscellaneous (NRM) premises accounted for 10.5% of all large loss fires


The numbers: There were 634 large loss fires in NRM properties, six of which occurred in private garages. These accounted for 0.1% of all large loss fires and 0.9% of fires in NRM properties


Cause NRM


Private garages Time of day


NRM


Private garages Impedances


NRM Private garages


Accidental 47.2% 30.0%


6.9% 30.0%


Deliberate 26.3% 20.0%


10.7% 20.0%


Unknown/unassigned 26.5% 50.0%


00:00 - 06:00 06:00 - 12:00 12:00 - 18:00 18:00 - 00:00 Unknown 18.0% 0.0%


17.3% 0.0%


Total 108 5


Access 36 0


23 2


47.6% 50.0%


Acetylene Inadequate water Resources 43 3


6 0


The cost: Fires in NRM properties account for 13.5% of estimated financial losses in all large loss fires, with an average loss of £822,707 per fire. Fires in private garages account for 22.2% of the estimated large losses in NRM properties, with an average cost of £19,328,749 per fire (£250,333 if vehicles only are discounted as a cause)


Insurance component


NRM Private garages


Without vehicles only as cause


Business


Building 67.6% 92.0%


22.6%


interruption Contents Loss of rent 13.5% 0.5%


4.4% 0.0%


43.3%


average loss was reduced to ‘just’ £250,333, but this had additional effects. In the original search, the buildings accounted for 92% of the total losses, with business interruption accounting for an almost insignificant 0.5% of the total. With the amended search criteria, the proportion of the loss due to the building was reduced to 22.6%, with business interruption accounting for 43.3%. This figure for business interruption confirms that commercial activities were being carried out in at least some of the buildings. There are several important lessons to be


learned from this month’s searches, including to look at sample size. If it is not a statistically significant fraction of the total population of the sector, the results are likely to be unreliable as they may be prone to be skewed by any single major event that is included. In the above example, there was a major fire in January 2010 which almost certainly had a major impact on the results. This occurred in a very large transport repair garage which was privately owned, and hence could have been coded as a private garage. The fire resulted in the total loss of at least


40 vehicles, together with the entire premises. Unfortunately, the incident was the result of a fire deliberately lit beneath a caravan parked outside the premises. Looking at the statistics from 2011 onwards, and thus not including this incident, the statistics are much more believable. This illustrates that it is important to


0.0%


Fires in private garages cost on average £100,476 m2 £1,372 m2


4.0% 7.0%


0.0%


Machine and plant


2.5% 0.0%


10.7%


Stock Other 5.3% 0.0%


2.6% 0.3%


2.9% 20.6% ; whereas those in NRM properties cost


think about possible alternative terms to the one that was selected for a search. In the example, the term ‘private garage’ initially conjured up visions of a small building next to a house in a residential area where a car was kept – along with tools, ladders and other assorted domestic junk. However, our results show that the term ‘private garage’ also appears to have been used to describe what were essentially commercial vehicle repair workshops – that is to say, business premises. Look carefully at the results that have been


found. Do they seem to be realistic? If they seem unbelievable they probably are! The benefits of the application of simple logic cannot be overemphasised. Take care to select the parameters of your search: in the example quoted, removing vehicles only as a cause of fire had a profound effect on the results. In this particular instance, it removed 93 fires


where vehicles had been the major factor in the losses,and the £5m or so associated with these incidents had a major effect on the average figure, with the proportions of the losses accredited to property and business interruption. Maybe there is something in the old saying about lies, damned lies and statistics – enjoy your searches!


Adair Lewis is technical consultant at the Fire Protection Association. For more information, view page 5


This is Adair Lewis’ final ‘Loss analysis’ column for F&RM Journal. We would like to thank him for regularly contributing the statistics and analysis from across a wide range of topics; for his extensive knowledge; and for the time taken to parse the data over the previous six years. Our members (and even staff!) have benefitted greatly from the information – thanks again!


www.frmjournal.com DECEMBER 2019/JANUARY 2020 55


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