Business
Table 1:Global innovation index 2018
Socio-economic and political trends from 2020 to 2030 Looking back on the last decade, it is safe to say the world experienced a difficult time between 2019 and 2023. Recessionary economic forces and austerity dominated, yet government deficits sky- rocketed. However, after 2023 some growth thankfully resumed, trade normalised and market stability returned. By the late 2020s, the disruptions caused by
Brexit and the US/China trade wars had receded and the predictions of global economic growth meltdowns had been avoided. China had cemented itself as the world’s leading economy and became a stabilising force in global business and politics. India was not far behind, having become the third largest consumer economy1. Indeed, its population had risen to more than 1.5 billion and had overtak- en China’s population – somewhat stabilised at 1.4 billion. India’s economy is on target to surpass the USA in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2040, according to a report by PwC2. Overall, growth markets in Asia have continued to outper- form the West. The East now leads in many sectors and for-
mer wealthy, Western-based nations are increas- ingly reliant on innovation from these countries3. The future of this trend was already visible in 2018 where the global innovation index showed Singapore, the lead economy in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and China improving their position in the global innovation index. Now, in 2030 the flow of new technolo- gies from the East rivals those from the West (Table 1). Africa, meanwhile, had moved towards a period of improved political and economic stability4.
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Physical terror-related events had largely disap- peared but had been replaced with chronic, low- level cyber-crime which had been costly, and many expensive remedies had to be developed to try to stem the disruptions to global businesses. Today, displaced populations from unrest in the Middle East and Africa are starting to return home. The poor condition of those war-torn countries has improved considerably, and the diseases and mal- nutrition suffered in the early 2020s are no longer an issue. Today in 2030, the world is enjoying a pro-
longed period of sustained growth. Economic pros- perity had allowed for an increase in investment in many social projects. Healthcare as a fundamental human right5 has become one of the new genera- tion’s principles. This translated to a societal move- ment, led by millennials and Generation X, that strived toward fairness across societies and regions. As a result, while environmental issues such as global warming remain a challenge6 the severe predictions made between 2000 and 2020 have not materialised following the worldwide implementation of new legislation agreed at suc- cessful global climate summits held between 2021 and 2025. The US finally re-signed up to the cli- mate change initiatives. However, significant challenges remain. Some
nations have failed to meet basic societal demands7, such as ensuring adequate clean water supplies and unpolluted air8, commodities which are now being supplied by private companies to those who can afford them. At the same time, access to medicines remains a political juggling act with governments and healthcare providers facing increasing demand for new vaccines, diagnostics and therapies.
Drug Discovery World Fall 2019
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