feed is expected to vary within a range of -0.5/+1.5%.
EU COMPOUND FEED PRODUCTION IN 2019 DOWN BY 0.9%
Compound feed production estimates for 2019
The industrial compound feed production for farmed animals in the EU-28 for 2019 is estimated at 161.7 million tonnes, 0.9% lower than in 2018, according to data provided by FEFAC members.
In regards to cattle feed, the poor stocks of forages resulting from the 2018 drought and heat waves induced a significant increase in the compound feed demand for cattle on the first quarter 2019. For the rest of the year, the return to normal weather conditions together with increasing restrictions on phosphorous emissions in certain countries resulted in an annual fall of the demand for cattle feed by 2.3 % for 2019 compare to 2018. The biggest decrease is reported in IE (-15%), followed by UK (-7%).
Poultry feed production is estimated to have increase by just 0.1% this year, which is well below the expected rise in poultry meat production expected to reach +2.5% in 2019. This could be caused by the sharp increase of poultry meat imports, especially from Brazil and thanks to feed efficiency gains. EU poultry feed production remains the leading segment of EU industrial compound feed production, well ahead of pig feed.
Pig feed production is expected to decrease by 0.9 % in 2019. Despite growing export opportunities (e.g. trade dispute between China and the US, prevalence of ASF in many Asian countries), EU pork production increased only moderately. The EU countries affected the most by ASFv outbreaks on commercial farms recorded dramatic production decreases, notably - 15% in Romania and - 9% in Bulgaria.
(million tonnes)
2018 2019 % change 2019/2018
Cattle feed 47 45.5 Pig feed
Poultry feed 55.5 56 Total
51 50.5 163 161.5
-2 -1
0.1 -0.9
The demand for pig feed is expected to remain stable in ASF-free countries, boosted by the increased market demand in Third Countries. On the other hand, it is unlikely that countries with ASF cases recorded in domestic pig farms will manage to reverse the trend. In addition, the pig sector is subject to strong pressure for reduction of its emissions in The Netherlands, which may result in a decapitalisation of herds. As a result, pig feed production is expected to remain stable in 2020 in the “best case” scenario. Of course, should ASF spread to leading pig producing countries (Spain, Germany, Denmark or The Netherlands), the outlook may be affected dramatically.
All in all, industrial compound feed production is likely to remain stable in 2020, with a +/- 2% uncertainty margin due to the many unpredictable parameters at stake.
, which covers mycotoxins originating from penicilliums, which pose a risk in grass silage.
“With high levels of good quality forage around this year, hopefully it should be a good winter for dairy farmers. However, it’s important to keep an eye out for mycotoxins and test your forage to help maintain cow health, FCE and milk production,” concludes Mr Kendal.
THE EUROPEAN FEED INDUSTRY COMMITTED TO SUPPORTING THE
HIGH MYCOTOXIN LEVELS IN SILAGE POSE A RISK TO DAIRY FARMERS THIS WINTER
A high risk of mycotoxin contamination in this year’s forage is posing a challenge for many producers and could be responsible for struggling milk yields and excessive feed waste and underutilisation, experts warn. Bob Kendal, regional sales manager at Alltech U.K. says, while many producers have lots of forage available this year due to a bumper harvest, we have had a record number of mycotoxin related enquiries, and a number of silage test results have shown high levels of penicillium.
“This is thought to be linked to poor clamp consolidation at harvest due to overflowing clamps, which has meant aerobic conditions have been allowed to build up presenting the perfect environment for penicillium mycotoxins to spread,” says Mr Kendal.
“The problem has been further compounded during feed-out, with poor clamp faces allowing further air penetration resulting in surface mould.”
Mr Kendal warns that once mould is visible, damage may have already been done. “Even a low level of mycotoxin contamination in silage has the potential to have a detrimental impact on rumen function. Therefore, producers need to be testing forage for contamination regardless of whether they think they have a problem or not, as mycotoxins can go unidentified.”
The Alltech 37+® Outlook 2020
Next year, the demand for poultry feed will be dependant mostly on the extent to which Brazil will recover its leading position on the global poultry meat market after a meat fraud scandal two years ago and its resumption of exports to the EU, thus weighing on the EU production. The demand for poultry
service tests forage for
over 50 different strains of mycotoxins, which helps producers and nutritionists identify the presence of mycotoxins sooner. If there is a problem, it then allows a nutritional solution to be developed and implemented to tackle the identified issue.
“Incorporating a mycotoxin binder into the total mixed ration (TMR) can help reduce the long-term risk of health and performance
PAGE 52 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2020 FEED COMPOUNDER
EUROPEAN GREEN DEAL FEFAC is offering its full cooperation to help achieve the new EU Commission’s objectives laid down in the “Green Deal, for the journey towards carbon-neutral livestock and aquaculture production in Europe. The European feed industry has been a long-time investor in research and development to provide innovative animal nutrition solutions to farmers, helping them to address the challenge of climate change. FEFAC’s members are recognised world leaders in resource efficiency & applied animal nutrition science, upgrading and converting low value co-products of the food and biofuel industry into high-value foodstuffs of animal origin (e.g. meat, dairy, eggs and fish).
FEFAC President Nick Major highlights that the EU livestock and aquaculture sector only represents 10% of all GHG emissions in the EU. He recalls that feed production and products of animal origin are an essential component of sustainable food systems: “Farm animals including fish consume 86% ‘non-human edible’ feedingstuffs, according to FAO, meaning the feed sector plays a key part in a truly circular economy, by keeping and upgrading nutrients present in a vast range of co-products, like sunflower & rapemeal, sugarbeet pulp & molasses, brewers grains and wheat bran”. Nick Major notes that FEFAC and its members have invested heavily in new Product Environmental Footprint measurement tools (PEFCR Feed for Food- Producing Animals) and Feed LCA databases (EC Feed database and the GFLI Database). He stressed that by entering the age of “big data” management and artificial intelligence, the industry will be able to further improve its environmental performance by closing nutrient cycles, reducing GHG emissions, while improving biodiversity, thus allowing livestock farming and aquaculture to be part of the solution in tackling climate change”. FEFAC members are developing the Feed Sustainability Charter 2030, setting out 5 key ambitions, with additional industry commitments, which will sustain the EU’s holistic approach of sustainable food systems within the “Green Deal” package. The Charter will be adopted and published at the XXIX FEFAC Congress in Antwerp on 4 June
issues, which will ultimately help reduce feed waste and underutilisation. But, it’s worth ensuring a broad-spectrum mycotoxin binder is incorporated into the TMR, such as Mycosorb A+®
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