38% of PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S users already own a Switch. Further, 60% of PlayStation 5 and Xbox X/S users are considering purchasing a Switch 2.
GRAND THEFT AUTO VI DELAY WREAKS HAVOC The biggest disruption in the 2025 console market is the delay of Grand Theft Auto VI. Originally slated for late 2025, Rockstar Games pushed the release to May 2026, and the ripple effect of this delay is unequivocally being felt by Sony and Microsoft. For years, Grand Theft Auto has been a tentpole franchise that bolsters console adoption. Many PlayStation 4 and Xbox One users have yet to upgrade to the next generation and GTA VI was expected to be a key hardware upgrade driver. DFC had projected that GTA VI would catalyze a spike in PlayStation
5 sales, building on its significant market lead over Xbox Series X/S. But the delay has shifted this narrative. Without GTA VI, Sony’s hold on market share faces unexpected pressure as PlayStation 5 sales have entered the decline cycle.
A SURGE FOR NINTENDO The Switch 2 is now positioned to come out as a winner in this chaotic market environment. Unlike Sony and Microsoft, Nintendo rarely relies on specific third-party megahits to propel sales. Instead, the Switch 2’s appeal lies in its robust launch lineup, which includes both beloved first- party staples and influential third-party titles. Additionally, the GTA VI delay indirectly benefits Nintendo in
another way. By the time the game officially launches in May 2026, the Switch 2 will already have established a significant foothold in the market. This head start allows Nintendo to dominate the early next-gen sales cycle, offering a broad library of games that appeal to traditional players and new audiences alike. While GTA VI is unlikely to launch with a Switch 2 version (a PC
version has not even been announced), the possibility of a future release tailored for the platform remains an intriguing prospect.
XBOX STRUGGLES AND THE ROAD TO REDEMPTION The Xbox Series X/S has struggled to maintain a global foothold in the increasingly competitive console market. While it has found moderate success in North America, it has performed poorly in Europe, Japan, and other key markets. Microsoft’s challenges aren’t just about underwhelming hardware sales, but also its struggle to resonate with a worldwide audience that has seemed more inclined to favor PlayStation or Nintendo systems. However, Microsoft’s long-term strategy hints at an ambitious plan to
upend industry dynamics. While much attention has been focused on Microsoft’s multi-platform strategy the potential introduction of a new hardware system could drastically shift market dynamics. With Xbox Game Pass as a solid leader in subscription-based gaming, Microsoft appears poised to build an ecosystem that pairs subscription services with future hardware innovations. This approach not only strengthens its position in the market but also sets the stage for a potential leapfrogging of traditional hardware competitors, most notably Sony.
Where once hardware exclusivity and raw console power defined success, the portability trend is now a game-changer. Nintendo’s dominance in merging console-grade experiences with portability through the Switch has made clear the demand for hybrid platforms. Sony’s historical focus on traditional standalone console experiences, and Microsoft’s so-far limited investment in portability, leave both companies at a crossroads. The next major hardware battle between Sony PlayStation and
Microsoft Xbox will likely hinge on who can perfect the console/ portable hybrid gameplay experience that has been Nintendo’s domain for years. Xbox may look to innovate in this space, using its robust cloud infrastructure as a backbone for hybrid portability. If Microsoft can develop a device or ecosystem that combines the best of powerful home console performance with on-the- go gameplay, it could disrupt Sony’s dominance and challenge Nintendo’s hybrid lead. On the other hand, Sony has the brand loyalty and hardware
design pedigree to make bold moves into the hybrid arena. While the recent PlayStation Portal device fell short of expectations due to its limitations as a mere remote play accessory, Sony’s next wave of hardware may take direct aim at delivering a fully realized hybrid console experience. The stakes are clear. Portable gaming is no longer a niche; it’s the
future for the console market. Whether Microsoft can deliver on its potential and whether Sony can match Nintendo’s ingenuity in this area will likely decide the leader of the next console cycle.
A REDEFINED INDUSTRY The Nintendo Switch 2 is emerging as a catalyst not only for the company but for the broader gaming ecosystem. By integrating a robust library of third-party titles and emphasizing hardware upgrades, Nintendo is no longer content to exist in a separate category from the PlayStation and Xbox. Instead, it challenges their long-standing dominance, narrowing the performance gap while also attracting enough exclusives and multi-platform support to attract a broader spectrum of gamers. The industry is now poised for an era in which Nintendo becomes
a primary partner for key publishers, with DFC forecasts estimating over 100 million Switch 2 units sold by the end of 2029. This dominance would surpass its competitors by a wide margin and provide Nintendo with newfound negotiating clout. For Sony and Microsoft, the future is filled with uncertainties.
While Grand Theft Auto VI will undoubtedly drive console sales, the delay until 2026 leaves an unexpected opening for the Switch 2 to ensnare audiences. And whereas Microsoft must confront its third- place trajectory, its now market leading library of IP means Sony faces the challenge of maintaining its lead in a market continually disrupted by the unexpected. Nintendo is no longer the perennial innovator with a unique
audience and market position. With the Switch 2, it has entered the fray for total console market supremacy, and if 2025’s trajectory is any indicator, the battle ahead looks to be riveting to say the least.
August/September 2025 MCV/DEVELOP | 31
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