LCF REVIEW


it costs them to produce.” Spencer Hyman took a structural view. “If you


don’t pay farmers enough to live off,” he said, “they don’t want to do it anymore. We have to stop treating chocolate just as a commodity.” He noted that in specialty or craft chocolate,


where prices are negotiated directly with farmers and tied to quality, more stable relationships exist — but the mainstream industry still drives volatility by chasing the lowest possible cost. Chris Vincent provided the macro context:


disease, aging trees, and stagnant productivity in West Africa remain the root causes of tight supply. “We’re still trying to work out the full extent of the disease issue,” he said. “We have a respite at the moment, but time will tell.” He added that investment in Latin American origins — notably Brazil and Ecuador — is increasing, yet the world’s dependence on Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire means the same structural vulnerabilities persist.


Questions from the floor When the floor opened, the audience brought real-world experience to the fore. One cocoa trader described the lack of


contractual stability at the farm gate: different buyers arrive offering inconsistent prices, sometimes far below the official rate. Without reliable contracts, they said, farmers lose motivation to maintain quality. Another voice from the production side


raised concerns about intermediaries — the middlemen who thrive when prices surge. These brokers, the speaker explained, can pay cash and bypass paperwork, capturing the profit that should reach farmers. The worry, however, was not just current prices but what happens if the market corrects. “Farmers remember higher prices,” the comment went. “If prices fall again, they might walk away from cocoa altogether.” A third participant focused on supply- chain transparency, urging the industry to adopt technologies — possibly blockchain- based systems — that would track cocoa and payments more openly. Without visibility, they argued, producers can’t see where their cocoa goes or whether fair value returns to them. Together, these interventions shifted


the conversation from pure economics to the lived realities of how volatility ripples through the chain.


The panel responds: Traceability and trust Chris Vincent acknowledged that the concerns reflect a systemic opacity still prevalent in the sector. “Roughly half of the world’s cocoa is untraceable,” he said. “No one knows exactly where it came from or what price the farmer was paid.” He explained that national traceability


programs now being rolled out in major producing countries aim to connect physical beans to digital records — and, crucially, link


ROUGHLY HALF OF THE WORLD’S COCOA IS


UNTRACEABLE — NO ONE KNOWS EXACTLY WHERE IT CAME FROM OR WHAT PRICE THE FARMER WAS PAID


those records to financial flows. “That’s when transparency starts to happen,” he said. Sophie Jewett welcomed this but stressed


how limited progress has been in two decades of certification efforts. “The voice of consumers is shorter and more direct to growers now,” she said, “but for all the talk of sustainability, not much has really changed. We need to rebuild trust through shorter supply chains.” For Spencer Hyman, the answer lies in changing how consumers perceive chocolate itself. “We’ve spent decades teaching people to


customers indefinitely,” she said. “My fear is a compromise on quality as farmers push cocoa to market quickly to catch the price.” Spencer Hyman predicted modest but


significant growth in the specialty segment. “If we can shift even a few percentage points of global volume toward quality-focused chocolate,” he said, “we’ll have a foothold.” He pointed to Brazil’s domestic industry as a potential game changer — a producer nation with a strong local consumer base. However, he also raised a more disruptive


possibility: the rise of alternative chocolates made from non-cocoa sources. “Some major ingredient companies are already developing them,” he warned. “If the market keeps pushing down prices for real cocoa, synthetic versions will fill that gap.”


From alternatives to integrity A question from the audience later in the session underscored that concern: a frozen-dessert manufacturer said suppliers are already offering non-cocoa formulations because natural cocoa has become too expensive. If those alternatives proliferate, they suggested, cocoa could become a secondary ingredient. The panelists agreed that innovation


will continue, but warned against losing authenticity. Wright closed the loop with a story from his days as a product developer: asked to make a cheaper ice-cream coating, he tried several formulations — all of which worsened the flavour. When the marketing team simply raised the price and rebranded it as “better chocolate,” sales soared. His point: “You can only go so far down with


quality. At some point you have to say, thus far and no further.”


consume chocolate,” he said. “Now we need to teach them to savour it. The only real incentive for sustainability is flavour — if you want better taste, you have to pay the farmer more.”


Crystal ball: what happens next Turning to the future, Wright asked the panellists where they see cocoa prices heading — and whether this year’s shock could trigger longer-term transformation. Chris Vincent was cautious. “I won’t speculate on exact numbers,” he said, “but we’re seeing a geographic shift. In Brazil we’re moving into industrial-scale plantations — 5,000 to 10,000 hectares. That changes the dynamics.” Yet the major origins still face diseases such as swollen shoot virus, alongside aging trees and limited replanting. “Those fundamentals will define what comes next.” Sophie Jewett observed that specialty


buyers like her already pay far above market rates, but even that model faces stress. “When prices double, you can’t just pass that on to


Key takeaways The conversation revealed not just market turbulence, but deep uncertainty about cocoa’s future. Five threads stood out: 1. Price volatility is structural, driven by disease, aging farms, and a decades-old commodity model.


2. Traceability and transparency remain the missing links — without them, farmers and buyers alike operate in the dark.


3. Intermediaries capture disproportionate value, while farmers still face unpredictable pricing.


4. Quality and flavour offer the only sustainable route to higher farm-gate prices.


5. Alternatives to cocoa are no longer hypothetical; they could redefine what “chocolate” means if the industry fails to reward real cocoa properly.


The London Chocolate Forum 2025 ended


the panel not with easy answers but with a shared recognition: business as usual will not sustain either farmers or flavour. The challenge now is whether the industry can rebuild a system that values the people — and the plants — behind every bar.


OCTOBERR 2025 • KENNEDY’S CONFECTION • 15


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