INDUSTRY INSIDER: MARK MCGUINNESS


offer a back door into the player’s psyche. They are not sold as a gamble; they are marketed as an opinion.


This shift changes the entire top of funnel strategy. Instead of buying expensive TV slots to shout about prices, the winners in 2026 are using prediction markets to drive organic engagement. We are seeing brands move away from the odds led creative and toward event led narratives.


A prediction market on whether a specific player will be substituted before the 60th minute is not just a market; it is a talking point that lives and breathes on social media. It is inherently shareable. The acquisition cost for a trader on a prediction exchange is significantly lower than for a punter on a sportsbook, primarily because the product itself acts as the marketing hook.


THE LAND-BASED RENAISSANCE: FROM SSBTS TO PREDICTION HUBS


The physical casino floor and the high street betting shop are perhaps where this shift will be felt most acutely. For too long, land-based sports betting has been a secondary thought, delivered through clunky terminals that feel like they belong in the early 2000s.


If we want to capture the attention of the guest who has walked away from the blackjack table, we cannot hand them a complex, multi-page sportsbook menu. We need to offer them a binary choice.


Imagine the casino floor during the 2026 World Cup. Instead of rows of static screens, we have ‘Prediction Hubs’ that mirror the energy of a live trading floor. These terminals do not ask you to calculate parlay returns; they ask you if Mexico will score in the next ten minutes. It is fast, it is tactile, and it is instantly understandable.


By stripping away the intimidation factor of traditional odds, land-based operators can finally bridge the gap between their casual hospitality guests and their gaming revenue. We are essentially talking about the gamification of sports insight. If a guest can understand a red or black bet on the roulette wheel, they can understand a yes or no prediction on a penalty shootout.


THE 104-MATCH MARATHON: WHY SCALE FAVOURS THE BINARY The expansion to 48 teams is the final nail in the coffin for the manual feel of traditional sports betting. Managing the risk on 104 matches using old school trading methods is an exercise in futility.


The prediction model, fuelled by the landmark Stats Perform data deal signed earlier this year, allows for a level of automation and precision that fixed odds simply cannot match. When the data flows at ultra-fast speeds, the market becomes self-correcting. The operator


stops being the house and starts being the facilitator.


For the C-suite, this is a dream for the bottom line. It reduces the reliance on massive, expensive trading floors and shifts the focus toward technology and user experience. During the World Cup, we will see that the most successful platforms are not the ones with the most props, but the ones with the cleanest ‘yes/no’ interfaces. We must remember that the casual fan – the one who only shows up for the World Cup – is intimidated by a complex betting slip. They understand a ‘yes/no’ trade. It feels like a vote. It feels like participation.


THE PATH FORWARD


So, what does this mean for those of us steering the ship?


First, we have to acknowledge that if you are still competing solely on having the best price on a match, you are in a race to the bottom that nobody wins. The winners in 2026 will be those who build the best prediction interface, with tools that are simple, fast, and feel human. Second, we have to walk a regulatory tightrope. As prediction markets begin to look more like financial derivatives, we invite the


About the author


Mark McGuinness is an ‘architect of high-impact iGaming marketing.’ He is currently fractional CMO at Devilfish.com and brings over 24 years of elite digital marketing leadership to the role, advising top-tier iGaming operators across diverse regulated landscapes. He translates deep analytical power, honed from his scientific background, into breakthrough strategies for affiliate marketing, Web3, social poker, and casino gaming. McGuinness champions the game-changing integration of neuroscience and behavioural economics to skyrocket customer engagement and conversion.


scrutiny of different regulators. We must ensure these products are seen as an evolution of entertainment rather than a backdoor into unregulated financial trading.


Finally, we must accept that data is the new odds. Your trading teams should not just be managing liability; they should be managing data flows.


I have always believed that our industry succeeds when it mirrors the world around it. We live in an era of instant opinion, a ‘yes/no’ culture, and a demand for transparent data. Fixed odds are beginning to feel like a relic of the betting shop era, all smoky rooms and physical slips.


Predictions feel like the future because they are clean, digital, and intuitive. Whether predictions replace fixed odds entirely is perhaps the wrong question to ask. The right question is whether you are prepared to serve the player who no longer wants to ‘place a bet,’ but wants to ‘own a position.’


The 2026 FIFA World Cup is our chance to


prove we are not just bookmakers, but providers of a sophisticated, modern exchange for the global sports fan. Let’s not blow the opportunity by sticking to the old playbook.


GIO FEBRUARY 2026 37


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