INDUSTRY INSIDER: MARK MCGUINNESS
The binary revolution: Why predictions are the new fixed odds
As the friction of traditional bookmaking gives way to the fluidity of information trading, the transition from fixed odds to binary predictions is no longer a forecast, it is an active industry coup that will define the 2026 World Cup cycle. Our Industry Insider, Mark McGuinness provides the details…
I
have spent enough years in this business to know that we are often our own worst enemies when it comes to the next big thing. We tend to overcomplicate our products, over index on industry jargon, and frequently underdeliver on the actual thrill of the chase. Standing here in early 2026, looking at the data harvested from February’s Super Bowl 60, it’s clear that the ground has shifted beneath our feet. For those who missed the handle reports, Super Bowl 60 was not just a victory for the Seattle Seahawks; it was the moment prediction markets went mass market. We saw a staggering volume of trade on nontraditional event contracts that would have been laughed out of a trading room ten years ago. It was not about whether Seattle would cover a -4.5 spread. It was a liquid, shifting marketplace asking simple, punchy questions: “Will there be a defensive touchdown in the first half?” or “Will Sam Darnold throw for more than 300 yards?”
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THE SHIFT FROM ‘ODDS’ TO ‘PROBABILITY’
The difference here is a potent mix of liquidity and simplicity. While traditional sports books were busy tweaking their margins and limiting winning accounts, a practice that continues to alienate our most engaged customers, the prediction exchanges were welcoming all comers with tight spreads and a transparent ‘yes or no’ proposition.
We need to be honest with ourselves as leaders. The traditional fixed odds model is built on an inherent, often adversarial friction between the operator and the player. We want them to lose; they want to win. In contrast, the prediction market model functions more like a financial exchange. This is not just betting anymore; it is trading on information. When I talk to C-level colleagues in the land-based sector, they see the writing on the wall. The digital native player does not want to
spend their Saturday afternoon deciphering what 13/8 means while they are three pints deep in a sports bar. They want to know if the probability of a goal is 60 or 40 per cent and trade accordingly.
THE MARKETING PARADIGM: ACQUISITION AT THE SPEED OF NEWS
If we look at the looming World Cup 2026, the implications for marketing and player acquisition are profound. For decades, the big brand sportsbooks have relied on a scorched earth policy of aggressive CPA spending, often revolving around “Free Bet” offers and deposit matches. This model is broken.
In the new World Cup 48-team tournament with 104 matches, the noise is deafening. Traditional marketing speak – all those ‘Bet £10 Get £30’ banners – simply gets filtered out by the modern consumer. Predictions, however,
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