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Latest BMF Forecast highlights uncertainty within the supply chain
The latest forecast from the BMF highlights the strength of the building materials market throughout the past year whilst painting a more uncertain picture for 2022 in the light of continuing supply chain issues and inflationary pressures. The forecast combines a comprehensive analysis of merchant market performance from July 2014 to September 2021, taken from the Builders Merchants Building Index (BMBI), coupled with analysis of key factors affecting builders’
Retrofitting is part of levelling up
The BMF wants to see more spent to decarbonise homes to create more new, meaningful jobs in every region of England. The impact would be especially beneficial in towns where (a) unemployment is high, and (b) there is a high proportion of homes rated EPC Band C or below. Research done by the Northern Housing Consortium found that 75% of spending by social housing providers in the North is with regional suppliers. In Blackpool, 75% of homes are EPC Band C or below and unemployment is more than double the national average. A June 2020 report from the Local Government Association indicated that approx. 1,000 retrofitting jobs could be created in Blackpool by 2030. In Wolverhampton, 70% of homes are EPC Band C or below and 9% of people were unemployed. In Middlesbrough, the rates were 67% and 9% respectively. That is why the BMF wants ministers to adopt the National Retrofit Strategy that sets out a 20- year fully-costed plan to improve existing homes.
merchants’ sales to project future sales in 2022. The Report forecasts annual builders merchant sales growth of +29.2% for 2021 over 2020. Looking ahead to 2022, the forecast considers three potential scenarios for the coming year: A baseline scenario, where the current situation gradually eases through the year, with a forecasted year-on-year increase of +0.1% A downside scenario, which considers the worsening of the ongoing availability challenges, persisting
energy issues and increasing inflationary pressures
throughout 2022, resulting in a
forecasted year-on- year decrease of -0.9%.
Sarup Ubhi, BMF Industry Analyst/Economist said: “The building materials industry has shown remarkable adaptability and resilience to overcome testing conditions arising from the global Covid pandemic which has now
P&H Merchant sales end year on upward trend
Sales through specialist plumbing and heating merchants continued their upward trend in the final quarter of 2021 according to figures released by the Builders Merchants Federation in its latest Plumbing & Heating Merchants Index.
Despite there being four fewer trading days in Q4 2021, absolute sales increased by +6.4% against Q3 2021. Comparing like-for-like sales, adjusted for the difference in trading days between the two quarters, shows an increase of +13.5% in Q4.
Year on year comparisons also show a slight upward trend, with sales in Q4 2021 up by +2.0% on Q4 2020, when there was no difference in trading days, and by +1.6% against Q4 2019, pre-Covid, with one more trading day in 2021, although like-for-like sales were flat at -0.1%.
March 2022
www.buildersmerchantsjournal.net
A review of the year shows that sales from January to December 2021 rose by +18.3% over 2020, with two less trading days in the most recent period. Adjusting for that difference, like-for-like sales increased by +19.3% in 2021 vs 2020. Annual sales were also higher than in 2019, with 2021 recording an absolute increase of +2.7%.
The data for the PHMI report is taken solely from plumbing and heating specialist merchants, including City Plumbing Supplies, Graham, James Hargreaves Plumbing Deport, PTS and Wolseley, who all form part of GfK’s Plumbing & Heating Merchants Panel. There is no overlap or any double counting between the PHMI and the BMF’s established Builders Merchants Building Index which analyses sales at generalist builders merchants.
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affected operations for almost two years.
However, continuing domestic and global supply challenges, combined with skills shortages, rising energy prices, price inflation and rising interest, which could affect both market and consumer confidence, creates a high degree of uncertainty at this stage. If the issues worsen or persist building material sales across 2022 will be restricted. If the issues eventually phase out and correct itself over the year, then we will see the flat rate growth shown in the baseline scenario. However, if the issues ease quicker than expected, then we will see an even better trading year than 2021.”
BMF DIARY DATES
In light of the continuous changes to events due to COVID-19 precautions, please check the BMF website at www.
bmf.org.uk for all the latest news and events updates in this ever-changing environment.
The BMF welcome the following new members:
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