TIMBER
TIMBER IMPORTS STRENGTHEN AS DEFICIT HALVES
The timber import market enjoyed a stronger month in April 2024 as prices continue to stabilise, the latest TDUK statistics show
T
he latest Timber Development UK (TDUK) statistics show that while imports of most timber products remain below those seen last year, volumes in April 2024 were 4.7% higher than those in April 2023. This has helped to reduce the deficit gap between 2024 and 2023 to 109,000m3, down from 150,000m3 at the end of Q1.
This latest improvement has moved all product groups into single-digit reductions, with the exception of plywood imports that are 2% higher in 2024 to date.
In softwood imports, for example, the value of imports in the first four months of 2024 was 7% lower than during the same period in 2023, caused by a 4% reduction in volume and a 3% fall in the average price of a basket of softwood imports.
For plywoods, softwood plywood imports saw probably the greatest change in sources of supply for many years. Volume in the month was around 5,000m3 higher than in April 2023, with Brazil supplying nearly 3,500m3 more in the month. China and Chile also supplied more, as did Uruguay and Canada, though there was a substantial fall in volume from Finland.
Overall for the quarter, the value of all plywood imports was still 10% below the level in the first four months of 2023. Softwood plywood values were 18% lower and hardwood plywood values remained 7% down.
24 Prices stabilise
Although timber imports overall in Q1 2024 remain below those seen in Q1 2023, changes in import volumes have largely stabilised since the multiple economic shocks caused by Brexit and Covid between 2020 and 2023, and the continuing armed conflict in Europe. The Structural Timber Imported Price Index now stands at 99, returning closer to pre- Covid and pre-Brexit levels.
During 2023 average monthly imported softwood and hardwood price levels barely changed, though hardwood and softwood plywood prices continued to be more volatile. These, however, also seem to have stabilised significantly at the beginning of 2024. TDUK head of technical and trade policy, Nick Boulton, says: “The fall in timber import volumes during Q1 of 2024 are largely in line with the fall in overall construction output data, which was 1.4% down in Q1 2024 over Q1 2023 and 7.5% lower in March 2024 compared with March 2023. “This can be attributed to poor UK economic performance and weaker construction outputs, which saw the lowest levels of housebuilding since 2014 (not including the Covid-affected year of 2020). “New housebuilding output in the UK – a significant source of timber usage – has fallen in each month (compared to the same month of the previous year) from February 2023 through to March 2024, with outputs 15% lower compared with March 2023.
Reflecting the wider industry Weaker timber import volumes compared with 2023 confirm the general sentiment across the timber trade and wider construction industry, though it should be noted that figures for March 2024 are being compared against March 2023 – the second-best month for import volumes of 2023 – after which volumes dropped further in eight of the following nine months.
Anecdotal forecast data from the panels sector suggest volumes are expected to improve for the remainder of 2024, which may indicate 2024 could end as a stronger year overall than we saw in 2023.
Drilling down the details Timber imports and sales are, inevitably, impacted by wider construction industry trends. Housing starts in England in Q1 2024 were 39% below Q1 2023, following on from a 50% reduction in Q4 2023 over Q4 2022. We have also seen timber imports of softwoods from Norway grow significantly during 2024 – up 14% despite overall softwood imports being 4.5% lower. Norway exports both sawn and planed pine and spruce to the UK and, while sawn spruce remains the largest product by volume, the driver of growth in 2024 has been Planed Spruce. At nearly 18,000m3, volumes have almost doubled (+98%) compared to 2023.
Comparing tropical hardwood imports in the first quarter of each of the last three years also reveals strong growth from the Congo Republic. A near doubling of share to account for 26% of tropical hardwoods resulted from an 18% growth in 2024 to date, driven mainly largely by a 40% increase in sawn Sapelli. Romanian Oak has been gaining favour among UK hardwood importers for a number of years, but in 2024 significantly higher quantities of Sawn Beech have propelled Romania’s share of temperate hardwoods into double figures.
It’s time to unite
Boulton adds: “Now we have a new Government the timber industry must unite and call for the much-needed investment needed to return to growth. It is encouraging that the new Chancellor is already signalling the need for investment in construction and infrastructure to help stimulate economic growth, but time will tell whether the new Government will be able to drive through this much-needed investment. “TDUK will continue to lobby and to help the new Government understand why timber is such an important material to help the UK achieve both its construction and net zero targets.” BMJ
www.buildersmerchantsjournal.net August 2024
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