FOCUS | CANADA Up in the air
From Canada’s sudden change at the top of the domestic political hierarchy, a looming battle of tariffs with its neighbour to the south, to mixed forecasts on its prospects for economic growth, and UniRope opening a new training centre to address the industry’s growing need for trained technicians, Jim Banks looks at the state of play in the Great White North.
C
anada is a vast country blessed with a wealth of natural resources and, above all, space. The second-largest country in
the world by area, occupying 40% of the continent of North America, it is larger than the US, and while it has only one eighth of the population of its southern neighbour, it still manages to rank in the top ten largest economies in the world. Blessed with potential and a reputation for political stability and solid economic growth, the country has long been seen as a favoured destination for investment, so the recent political turbulence and the rumblings of an economic battle with the new Trump administration are seen as causes for concern
at a macroeconomic level. Most observers expect some turbulence in the key industries in which the country’s scores of manufacturers and installers of overhead cranes operate. For now, economic conditions are relatively stable, with inflation staying within the Bank of Canada's (RBC) 1–3% target range throughout 2024. Over the same period, employment has been growing strongly, with 330,000 jobs created, and inflation-adjusted wages around 5% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Looking ahead, however, forecasts vary. Some analysts expect relatively slow economic
growth to persist, as 2025 could bring some significant policy shocks, as the political
landscape takes on a new shape, though GDP per capita, which has been declining since mid-2022, could start to rebound. By contrast, RBC paints a rosier picture, seeing
brighter growth prospects in 2025, though it admits there will be some challenges. Not only does it see the country’s per-capita GDP slump coming to an end by the middle of the year, but it also believes the labour market will further reverse the slowdown of recent years, with unemployment peaking at 7% before beginning edging lower. The Bank of Canada (BoC) looks likely to continue lowering interest rates at a faster rate than central banks in other advanced economies.
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