Comment | 3
COMMENT
Market confidence is key for a healthy business climate but as we go from autumn into winter, it’s clear that confidence is in short supply at the moment within the UK timber sector. But let’s start with the more
positive news. In terms of imports, the latest TDUK figures show the deficit in import volume over 2022
continues to reduce, down to 5% in January-July 2023, compared to 7% in January-June. Improvements were seen in the volume of imported
softwood, down to 3% from 6%; in chipboard imports, down to 8% from 9%, while OSB and MDF imports continue to show strong growth. In our hardwood and OSB/plywood market updates,
it is not wall-to-wall negativity, there are some positive voices pointing to a “gentle” pick-up in business. But the underlying economic forecasts and prevailing
sentiment is still “challenging”. The influential Construction Products Association’s Autumn Forecast predicts the UK economy to flatline in 2024, holding back recovery in new build housing and RMI until 2025. Construction output is expected to fall by 6.8% in 2023,
similar to the 7% contraction forecast three months ago, before a further marginal fall of 0.3% in 2024. This is a revision down from the 0.7% growth forecast in the summer CPA publication due to a weaker economic backdrop. Higher interest rates and inflation are a brake on economic prospects. The Bank of England predicts inflation won’t decrease
to its target 2% until 2025 and KPMG says GDP growth will be just 0.4% in 2023 and 0.3% in 2024.
TTJ – the voice of the timber Industry The softwood sector has been described as a “war
zone”, while in the hardwood trade stocks on the ground are too high, triggering price cutting. The slump in new build housing output is having a
dramatic effect on all timber products but OSB and plywood are perhaps faring better than some. From January to July this year, total plywood imports
were down 18.8% on the same time last year, with hardwood plywood imports 24.8% lower – the lowest volume since 2005. UK plywood and OSB traders know that some tough winter months are ahead but are still hopeful of a spring uplift next year. Elsewhere in this issue we have a comprehensive
focus on the tropical timber sector, with updates from Vandecasteele, Interholco and Precious Woods, as well as the latest on the forest governance and trade regulation. Many congratulations to Combilift on reaching its
25th anniversary this year, for more see the Handling & Storage Sector Focus. And please check our latest update on wood protection. Lastly, in this issue we have photo coverage of the 27th
TTJ Awards held on September 15. We had a fantastic time, with about 300 representatives of the timber sector coming together for the Awards presentation, to be entertained and network. If you weren’t there make sure you book tickets for next year!
GROUP EDITOR
www.ttjonline.com
► MARKETS UPDATE – SOFTWOOD Latest news on the softwood sector and how it is faring in this period of low demand and low prices
► OPINION – 2024 PREDICTIONS TTJ asks key players in the industry how they think 2024 will pan out and where they think the challenges and opportunities will lie
► SECTOR FOCUS – COATINGS & FINISHES
Our annual update from the world of coatings and finishes, speaking to major manufacturers of the products
► PLUS REGULARS
Latest UK and world news; technical news; comment from industry figures; and latest appointments.
www.ttjonline.com | November/December 2023 | TTJ
► SECTOR FOCUS – CLADDING & SHINGLES We look at the current market for cladding and shingles products
► TALKING TIMBER The Wood Technology Society continues its series of articles looking at new developments and key issues in the timber industry
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