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although the country increased its market share by one percentage point to 69%, and a 26,000m3


reduction from the removal of imports from Russia.


TDUK says the combined and individual values of hardwood and softwood plywood imports was 25% lower than over the same period in 2022. The fall in the value of softwood plywood imports, however, was generated by a 22% drop in the average price and a 3% fall in volume, while for hardwood plywood it was driven by a 25% fall in volume with average prices much the same as in 2022.


Importers and agents have the pleasure of containers being readily available and dramatically cheaper than during the pandemic – down from US$15,000-16,000 to US$850-2,000, depending on the ship’s UK port destination. Some shipping lines are reported to be taking ships out of service because of low demand.


One importer said business was going well, because he had diversified in terms of products and new customers, but he still predicted quieter times in Q1 next year. “If we hadn’t diversified we might be struggling,” he said.


There are no issues with the supply of Brazilian plywood but the US dollar exchange rate is putting Brazil at a disadvantage. “Elliottis pine plywood has come down a lot but it’s still more expensive than OSB so people are buying OSB,” said an importer. “Volumes of OSB are increasing and volumes of softwood plywood are decreasing.” One merchant, at least, is also pushing OSB rather than Chinese hardwood plywood because he said the latter was often of poor quality and not fit for some purposes. “With hardwood plywood prices falling, a sheet of OSB is a few pounds more so we’re doing ourselves out of some value but we see it as a duty of care to advise customers on what’s best for their end use,” the merchant said.


Earlier this year Chinese plywood factories were closing at a fast pace because of the downturn in global demand. The rate of closures has slowed but some mills have taken extended holidays.


The closures have not affected supply for UK agents and importers who deal with larger, well-established producers, but they have brought a deluge of unsolicited enquiries from mills looking for new customers. Some Chinese agents are also contacting UK traders with dubious offers of birch plywood.


“If you ask for proof of origin or UKTR documents they can’t provide them,” a UK agent said.


The same is true of some eastern European countries. “We’ve done due diligence on birch plywood being offered by Russia’s neighbours. We ask for the paperwork and


Above: OSB remains a popular product www.ttjonline.com | November/December 2023 | TTJ


they can’t provide it,” said an importer. A merchant told TTJ there was no doubt that large quantities of Russian birch plywood were still being offered, mainly in Europe, but he was reassured that reputable UK traders wouldn’t touch it.


“It’s impossible to shut the whole thing down but we’re lucky in the UK, we have some strong birch plywood suppliers who you know won’t dabble in dodgy products,” he said.


Meanwhile a trader who has been selling Chinese birch plywood now has the test results to prove it does come from birch plywood plantations in China, not Russia. “One plantation is FSC certified so we can sell genuine Chinese birch plywood that’s certified, and that’s a first as far as we know,” he said.


The construction and glue are the same as European birch plywood. “If you put them side by side the Chinese is a slightly darker colour but not so much you’d worry about it,” he said.


Another development from China is the trend towards eucalyptus rather than poplar plywood. Chinese mills favoured poplar because of the ready supply of raw material but now eucalyptus is available from plantations in southern China and some is also being imported from Uruguay. “It looks virtually the same but it has a much better core, it’s stronger and generally better quality, although that’s not to say you can’t get very good quality poplar ply,” TTJ was told.


As winter approaches, UK plywood and OSB traders are preparing for some tough months ahead but are hopeful there may be some uplift in spring next year. One importer described current trading conditions as “in the realms of survival mode” but he had been in the industry long enough to know what goes down will go up. “Timber traders are used to these ups and downs and big swings, so experience is vital,” he said.


Another contact cautioned against comparing any market to the explosive demand and high prices experienced during the Covid pandemic, and which are unlikely to be seen again.


“Those of us who have been in the industry for a long time have a different perspective from people who joined three or four years ago,” he said. “The Covid time was unique so you have to forget it; get it out of your system.”


It might be a year from now, however, before any significant change is noted. “We’re not predicting any change for next year until perhaps Q4 when there will potentially be a change of government,” said an importer. “I get the impression people are almost waiting for that. The big housebuilders are waiting for a government change that might make it more lucrative for them.”


Housebuilding output is expected to remain flat for the foreseeable future, and economic forecasts for the UK are hardly upbeat. In October, in its half-yearly update on the global economy, the IMF warned that the UK would be the slowest growing economy in the G7 next year. Two days later, the Office for National Statistics revealed the UK economy grew by an unexpected 0.2% in August. What seemed like positive economic news was tempered, however, by economists warning that the economy was flatlining and the full impact of the 14 consecutive interest rate rises had not yet been felt.


Several traders are choosing not to pay much heed to economic forecasts, which haven’t always been very accurate in the past few years, and concentrate on what they can do in their own businesses.


“The people actually doing business, we know where it’s at; we know what’s happening in the real world,” said one contact. “It’s tough but there’s still work going on and people have to get on with it. In the past 20 years we’ve been here before: it will bounce back.” ■


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