Raw materials


Butt-branded steers 60 –


50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 15 – 0


1020304050 Weeks


Heavy Texas steers 60 –


2021 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0


1020304050 Weeks


Heavy native steers


65 – 60 – 55 – 50 – 45 – 40 – 35 – 30 – 25 – 20 –


0


1020304050 Weeks


Branded cows 30 –


25 – 20 – 15 – 10 – 5 – 0 – 0


1020304050 Weeks


2021


2022 2023


2021


2022 2023


2022 2023


2021 2022 2023


For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised. Higher expected steer and heifer placements in the latter part of 2023 and the first part of 2024 will lead to higher marketings of fed cattle, particularly in the first half of 2024. In addition, cow and bull slaughter is raised from last month. Beef imports for 2023 are raised on recent trade data and stronger expected imports from Australia in the fourth quarter. For 2024, beef imports are raised based on higher expected imports from Australia due to tight US beef supplies. Exports for 2023 are raised slightly based on reported data for the third quarter. Beef export forecasts for 2024 are unchanged. Cattle price forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are unchanged although weaker prices in the first half of 2024 are offset by higher prices later in the year.


US cattle on feed up 2%


Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the US for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totalled 11.9 million head on 1 November 2023. The inventory was 2% above 1 November 2022.


Placements in feedlots during October totalled 2.16 million head, 4% above 2022. Net placements were 2.11 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600lb were 550,000 head, 600–699lb were 470,000 head, 700– 799lb were 465,000 head, 800–899lb were 394,000 head, 900–999lb were 205,000 head, and 1,000lb and greater were 80,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during October totalled 1.76 million head, 3% below 2022. Other disappearance totalled 55,000 head during October, 2% above 2022.


Hide market


Throughout much of the autumn, the US hide market was mainly steady. By the start of November, as one seller said, there were cracks developing. Softening prices were due to poor footwear demand as sources in China reported that shoe upper leather orders were very bad. Footwear orders overall remain poor for China’s domestic market as well as for export.


Chinese tannery purchasing was therefore being driven by low prices, not better orders. On the other hand, upholstery and car interior leather demand was better, hence the good interest for cow hides. Without a doubt, hide prices are comparatively a bargain. Only in the throes of the pandemic in 2020 were they lower. Looking at the price charts for the main steer selections, current levels are about where they were at the same point in 2020. With so many plates spinning in the air concerning global economic and political developments, nothing can be for certain. Most importantly, no factors were present to justify hide


16 Leather International / www.leathermag.com


Price ($)


Price ($)


Price ($)


Price ($)


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