FESTIVAL TIPS FROM BERNIE THE BOOK.... CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL
With the recent big freeze behind us I have noticed several leading trainers outlining their plans for their horses for Cheltenham and with five weeks to go by the time you are reading this now is the time to lay down some ante-post wagers. I say this because potential targets have now been identified. So here goes:
THE SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE (March 16)
In an open year and several leading contenders my stand out bet is GO NATIVE (6/1 general). Yes I will always have a soft spot for Harchibald and now this enigma has retired I feel his spirit has been transposed to his ex stable mate. In my opinion I would much rather have a horse travelling on the bridle over the last than one exerting too much pressure and I know the doubters will say “it won’t get up the hill”, but it did last year and it will again. Main danger will be from fellow market leader - Zaynar.
THE SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE (March 16)
Is it a wonder horse? It may be but until Dunguib is actually challenged we may never know and I think 5/4 is ridiculously skinny odds. My preference is for the Philip Hobbs trained MENORAH (8/1 general) who was emphatic in his destruction of the previously high vaulted Bellvano recently.
THE ARKLE (March 16)
Two years ago CAPTAIN CEE BEE (11/2 Coral) came up the Cheltenham hill to win the Supreme Novices Hurdle from Binocular. Since then injury has limited his racecourse participation but this year he looks back to his best and in my opinion would have beaten his main market rival (Sizing Europe) in Ireland recently bar falling at the last. He is my nap on the first day.
WEATHERBY’S CHAMPION BUMPER (March 17)
A couple of weeks ago I saw a Mullins hotpot go in at Fairy- house so easily that I can only believe this will be their main hope for the Bumper and I note that the 16/1 for UP OU THAT has already been hoovered up and currently the best odds available are 14/1 with Corals. Back it now.
THE RSA CHASE (March 17)
Race targets have not been finalised yet but I think this race will go to Nicky Henderson with the unexposed LONG RUN (13/2 Blue Square and Paddy Power). Keep stakes to a mini- mum - indeed follow my staking plan below as its target might change and Henderson might rely solely on the equally impressive Punchestowns.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE (March 17)
Will Master Minded run? The trainer says so. Has he recovered from his muscle problems? The trainer says so. Is 7/4 a valued price? I think not. There are certainly doubts and equally cases to be made for a number in the field but leaving the Irish con- tingent aside as I feel there are just too many question marks, I think that TWIST MAGIC at 6/1 general has the ability to step up from last year’s third.
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There then are my Cheltenham fancies for the first two days and I would advocate the following staking plan:
GO NATIVE (6/1) 15 units win MENORAH (8/1) 10 units win CAPTAIN CEE BEE (11/2) 30 units win UP OU THAT (14/1) 10 units win LONG RUN (13/2)6 units win TWIST MAGIC (6/1)10 units win Total 81 units
In addition I would suggest a 1 unit Heinz (minus doubles) equalling 42 units making a grand total of 123 units.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
Readers before Christmas will have seen my staking plan for THE 72. At that time I suggested Barcelona at a stand out 9/2 (now 3-1 is the best you will get), but I also suggested the Ital- ian Giants of AC Milan who are still available at 25/1 with a number of firms. Since then they have drawn Manchester United in the last 16 which I don’t believe will offer the sternest of resistance. Added to this portfolio now the draw has been made I would suggest a small wager on BORDEAUX at 28/1 with a number of firms. They have impressed recently, gone clear in the French league and have drawn the Greeks of Olympiakos in the last 16. They could not have wished for a better draw and they are my left field selection. On that point and as mentioned in my January column (only available on our website
www.phtm.co.uk) I think FRANCE could be the surprise package for this summer’s World Cup. 16/1 is widely available.
THE 72
Browse through my column in December and you will note if you followed my advice and placed a bet on the 72 you would currently be very happy about the state of play. Namely: Chelsea FA Cup was 9/2 now 7/4 Man City FA Cup was 10/1 now 4/1 Indianapolis Superbowl was 4/1 now 4/9 It pays to follow the Book. Until next month, good punting.
Bernie the Book STOP
PRESS...STOP PRESS...
In the Totesport Gold Trophy handicap hurdle (Feb 13th) I have just heard a whisper for HARRY TRICKER which is still 14/1 with Ladbrokes but generally available at 12/1. In a competitive renewal its form stands close inspection and providing the going on the day is not too testing a bold run is expected.
BTB PHTM FEBRUARY 2010
CHELTENHAM TIPS...
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
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