c trends...
on jobs may be disruptive, at least in the short term, and it could be used maliciously by rogue actors.”
Information and cyberspace
The volume, velocity, variety and veracity of data will grow exponentially and, “By 2050, virtually everyone is likely to have access to the internet, mobile devices and virtually limitless information.” Data transparency will increasingly become a challenge for the defence and security community. It is recognised that “Cybercrime is likely to have an increasingly severe impact in the coming decades and will require law enforcement agencies to collaborate internationally with private companies to combat the threat.”
Additionally, the “echo chamber of social media may drive further divisions within society”.
In terms of information and politics: “Digital communications are likely to be increasingly powerful tools for political mobilisation, potentially facilitating political power transitions.”
Additionally, it is predicted that during the next thirty years, cyberspace will provide a new platform for collaboration between states and criminal groups: “The ability to subjugate and control cyberspace and data might become the most effective way of exerting economic, military and political power.”
A more outlandish prediction for the online world is around gaming: “It is not inconceivable that a virtual equivalent of the Arab Spring will occur where an uprising which begins with online gaming community expands into the real world.”
New world order: implications for security
The world order is changing and as global power is redistributed, new stresses will emerge: “If current international institutions do not accommodate the interests of rising powers, a breakdown of international order could occur, possibly resulting in greater instability.”
In addition, the rising inequality could result in reduced social cohesion and fragmented societies: “Security, fragility and poverty are highly intertwined and can be drivers for discontent.”
There are increasing threats from crime and extremism as well as “Corruption and organised crime are strongly correlated with political instability, violence and extremism. Organised criminal groups will probably remain an integral part of conflict”.
Hybrid conflict and warfare are challenges that are likely to persist and evolve: “This could range from information operations in cyberspace to the proliferation of cheap military technology.”
Given the serious threats to security brought about by the balance of power shifting, it is reassuring to hear that “the risk of war
between states is likely to remain low”. However, conflicts within states are becoming more common.
A further trend is that the global commons, such as the oceans, polar regions and space, “are seeing increased levels of activity and becoming the focus on intense competition, possibly conflict.”
Black swans, black jellyfish and black elephants
Brigadier Ewen Murchison says, “The wealth of research and information distilled in this report is here to help those tasked with planning security to take a pragmatic view, identify opportunities and make decisions based on evidence, and become more comfortable dealing with uncertainty.
“Uncertainty, threats and risks can usefully be categorised as:
• Black swans - events that are almost impossible to predict, come as a surprise and have a major impact, such as 9/11.
• Black jellyfish - these are issues we think we know about and understand, but which turn out to be more complex and uncertain, sometimes with a long tail and a nasty sting; anti-microbial resistance could be such a creeping crisis.
• Black elephant - a cross between a ‘black swan’ and ‘the elephant in the room’, these are challenges staring us in face, but which no one wants to deal with. They are, in effect, blind spots, where due to cognitive bias, powerful institutional forces, short sightedness, or failure (or unwillingness) to read the signals we avoid the unpalatable, potentially at significant cost.
“The central idea of the research is that the rate of change and level of uncertainty may outpace good governance and unity. This means we cannot continue as we are, we need to think differently and adapt. Global Security Trends should allow the reader to draw their own informed and nuanced conclusions about the future.”
Read the full report here:
www.gov.uk/government /publicationsglobal-strategic- trends
There is also a short four- minute video which is particularly informative.
Andrea Berkoff Editor, City Security magazine
> © CI TY S ECURI TY MAGAZ INE – WINT ER 2018 www. c i t y s e cu r i t yma g a z i n e . com 3
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36
