2. What is happening to our environment and how have we responded?


2.1 Drivers of environmental change, megatrends and governance challenges


Human population dynamics or trends, particularly population pressure, and economic development have been acknowledged for many decades as the primary drivers of environmental change (well established). More recently, rapid urbanization and accelerating technological innovation have been additional influences. There are wide disparities globally in the consumption and production patterns that lie behind those drivers. {2.1.1, 2.2}


Those driving forces are also strongly intertwined, complex, and spread widely and unevenly across the world (well established). They are megatrends, developing at speeds with which responses by established governance structures at all levels – urban and rural, local, national, regional, global and supranational – are thus far insufficient to keep pace. {2.1.1}


The global population in 2018 is some 7.5 billion, with median projections estimating nearly 10 billion by 2050 and nearly 11 billion by 2100 (United Nations figures) (well established). Increases in life expectancy and reductions in infant and other mortality mean that population growth rates will continue to remain positive in all regions except Europe and certain parts of Asia. Unequal access to education, and lack of empowerment of women, as well as their lack of access to sexual and reproductive health services, all contribute to high birth rates. Without changes in production and consumption patterns, population growth will continue to increase environmental pressures. {2.3, 2.3.4, 2.1.1}


Urbanization is happening at an unprecedented rate globally and cities have become the foremost drivers of economic development across the world (well established). More people, especially in emerging and developing economies, are living in cities and towns, and the world’s urban population is expected to rise to 66 per cent by 2050 (well established). Approximately 90 per cent of city growth will occur in Africa and Asia. Africa is the most rapidly urbanizing region, and is also the region expected to experience the highest population growth (well established). Some 30 per cent of urban residents globally have no access to basic services or social protection, with poor women in low-income urban neighbourhoods being particularly vulnerable. {2.4, 2.4.3}


Almost all coastal cities of any size and small island developing States are increasingly vulnerable to rising sea-levels, floods and storm surges caused by climate change and extreme weather events (established but incomplete). In general, those cities in developing countries that are urbanizing most rapidly are in a more vulnerable situation. In contrast, sustainable urbanization can represent an opportunity to increase citizens’ well-being while decreasing their environmental impact. Lower- impact urban lifestyles can be facilitated by improved governance, infrastructure, services, sustainable land-use planning and technological opportunities. Investment in rural areas can reduce pressure to migrate. {2.4.4, 17.3}


Economic development has lifted billions of people out of poverty and enhanced access to health and education in most


6 Summary for Policymakers: Sixth Global Environment Outlook


regions of the world (well established). Nevertheless, the “Grow now, clean up later” economic approach used in certain regions has not accounted for climate change, pollution or degraded natural systems. That approach has also contributed to increasing inequality within and between countries and will ultimately be more costly. It will not be able to sustainably support 10 billion healthy, fulfilled and productive people in 2050 without profound and urgent changes in consumption and production patterns. {2.5.1}


Decoupling of environmental degradation and resource use from economic growth and associated production and consumption patterns is required for achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (well established). Partial decoupling between environmental pressures and economic growth can already be observed for some impacts and resources in certain countries. Further decoupling requires the scaling-up of existing sustainable practices and more fundamental transitions in the ways in which we produce, consume and dispose of goods and materials across society. Those transitions are likely to be more effective if supported by long-term, comprehensive, science- based targets that provide the objective basis for future directions and actions. {2.5.1}


The growth in technological innovation since the 1990s has been unprecedented, both globally and historically, bringing many benefits to people’s lives, but has also had some negative consequences (established but incomplete). Some technological and social innovations can reduce the environmental pressures associated with unsustainable consumption and production. Enhancing access to existing environmental technologies that are adapted to domestic circumstances could help countries to achieve environmental objectives more quickly. Application of precautionary approaches, according to international agreements (where applicable), to new technological innovations can reduce unintended negative consequences for human and ecosystem health. {2.6.2, 2.6.3, 2.6.4}


Countries that prioritize low-carbon, resource-efficient practices may gain a competitive advantage in the global economy (established but incomplete). Well-designed environmental policies and appropriate technologies and products can often be implemented in tandem at limited or no cost to growth and competitiveness and can expand the capacity of countries to develop and diffuse innovative technologies. That may be positive for employment and development, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and, ultimately, facilitating sustainable development (established but incomplete). {2.5.1}


Climate change is a priority issue affecting both human systems, including human health, and natural systems – air, biological diversity, freshwater, oceans and land – and which alters the complex interactions between those systems (well established). Historical and ongoing greenhouse gas emissions have committed the world to an extended period of climate change (well established), which is leading to global warming of air and ocean; rising sea-levels; melting glaciers, permafrost and Arctic sea ice; changes in carbon, biogeochemical and global water cycles; food security crises; fresh water scarcity; and


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