4 Changing the path we are on


4.1 The need for urgent, sustained and inclusive action


Without additional policies, trends in environmental degradation are projected to continue at a rapid rate and the related Sustainable Development Goal targets and internationally agreed environmental goals are not expected to be achieved, including on climate change, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, excess nutrient run-off, land degradation and ocean acidification (well established). Current patterns of consumption, production and inequality are not sustainable, adding to other severe environmental pressures. Many environmental indicators are projected to move in the wrong direction. Projected population growth, urbanization trends and economic development will significantly increase demand for natural resources, such as food, energy and water, towards 2050. Under a business-as-usual scenario, resource efficiency in production and consumption, agricultural yields and nutrient use, water and energy efficiency are projected to increase, thereby partially offsetting demand for key environmental resources. However, such improvements will be inadequate to reduce the pressure on already-stressed environmental systems. {21.3.1–21.3.5}


Indicators related to human development are projected to improve, but trends are insufficient to meet related targets (established but incomplete). Improvements are projected on global hunger, and access to safe drinking water, adequate sanitation and modern energy services, but significant inequality of access remains, and those improvements are not expected to take effect quickly enough for many countries to achieve the related Sustainable Development Goal targets. Preventable environment-related health risk factors are projected to remain prominent in 2030. Related global child mortality is projected to decrease, but not sufficiently for many developing countries to achieve the related Development Goal target, in particular in sub- Saharan Africa. Furthermore, air pollution is expected to continue to contribute to millions of premature deaths in the coming decades. {21.3.2, 21.3.3, 21.3.4, 21.3.6}


Overall, the world is not on track to achieve the environmental dimension of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and internationally agreed environmental goals by 2050. Urgent action is now needed to reverse those trends and restore both environmental and human health to the planet (established but incomplete). Future projections show that development is either


Figure SPM.8. Projected global trends in target achievement for selected Sustainable Development Goals and internationally agreed environmental goals


Human development indicators Related


Sustainable Development Goals


Target 2.1 End hunger


3.2 End preventable deaths of children under 5


6.1 Achieve universal access to safe drinking water


6.2 Universal access to adequate sanitation


7.1 Achieve universal access to modern energy services


Legend


15.2 Achieve land degradation neutrality 15.5 Halt biodiversity loss


On track to achieve target (under


bbusiness-as-usual scenarios target is projected to be achieved)


Progress towards target, but at an insufficient rate (unless effort is increased, target is projected not to be achieved)


Moving away from target (the trend is projected to be worse, rather than better)


14.1 Reduce marine nutrient pollution 14.3 Minimize ocean acidification 14.4 Sustainably manage ocean resources


Projection Related


Sustainable Development Goals


Target


6.3 Improve water quality 6.4 Reduce water scarcity


11.6 Improve air quality in cities 13 Limit global warming Projection Environmental indicators


Note: Many Sustainable Development Goal targets and internationally agreed environmental goals are broader in scope than shown in the above figure, which only assesses selected targets or elements of targets. The icons shown indicate the related Sustainable Development Goal. Trends are based on an assessment of business- as-usual projections in the scenario literature. For several target elements, trends are confirmed by multiple studies {SDG targets 2.1, 3.2, 7.1, 6.4, 11.6, 14.3 and 15.5, and SDG 13}, while for others, only limited scenario literature was available. (SDG targets 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 14.1, 14.4 and 15.2) {Table 21.2}


Changing the path we are on 19


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