too slow to achieve the targets or even that it moves in the wrong direction (see figure SPM.8). Continuing failure to take urgent action is leading to ongoing and further potentially irreversible adverse impact, including on critical environmental resources and human health. {Section 2.2} Current patterns of consumption and production may be more expensive in the long term for many countries, as it often costs more to clean up later than it does to prevent damage now, added to which cleaning up later may not always be possible. For example, a further delay in climate action increases the cost of achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, and at some point will make it impossible to achieve them. {21.3.3, 21.4, 24.4}


4.2 Transformative change and an integrated approach are needed


Pathways exist that show that the healthy planet needed for sustainable development can be achieved (established but incomplete). The literature includes many scenarios that provide information on the ways in which the Sustainable Development Goals, multilateral environmental agreements and related internationally agreed environmental goals can be achieved. Those pathways emphasize a number of key transitions in moving towards a healthy planet. They are associated with achieving sustainable consumption and production patterns for energy, food and water in order to provide universal access to those resources, while preventing climate change, air pollution, land degradation, loss of biodiversity, water scarcity, and overexploitation and pollution of oceans. They include changes in lifestyle, consumption preferences and consumer behaviour on the one hand, and cleaner production processes, resource efficiency and decoupling, corporate responsibility and compliance on the other hand. {22.3}


Transformative changes are needed to meet the Sustainable Development Goals, multilateral environmental agreements and related internationally agreed environmental goals. They go beyond what can be achieved by environmental policies alone (established but incomplete). The rate of change in the pathways indicates that incremental environmental policies alone will not suffice. A mix of social and technological improvements and innovations is required, facilitated by effective policy measures and cooperation on a scale from the local to the international. {22.4.1}


Meeting the targets related to climate change, reducing air pollution and providing sustainable energy for all is possible. Measures can be combined in different ways but need to be implemented rapidly and at an unprecedented scale (well established). It involves investment in energy access, enhancing the development and implementation of energy-efficiency improvements, lifestyle changes, a more rapid introduction of low greenhouse gas-emission technologies (including sustainable and equitably-produced bioenergy, hydropower, solar, wind and carbon-capture-and-storage), air pollution control and reducing emissions and increasing removals from land use and land-use change and forestry of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (including non-CO2


greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture).


Pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement are characterized by a reduction of carbon intensity in the global economy of 4 to 6 per cent per annum between now and 2050 (compared with 1 to 2 per cent per annum historically), which would reduce energy


system greenhouse gas emissions to almost zero by 2050. {22.3.2}


Eliminating hunger, preventing biodiversity loss and halting land degradation is possible by combining measures related to consumption, production, waste and redistribution of food, and nature conservation policies (established but incomplete). Scenarios achieving those social and environmental targets are typically characterized by a 50 per cent faster improvement in agricultural yields than a business-as-usual scenario, but depend heavily on changes on the consumption side and improvements in food distribution. Halting biodiversity loss would also require measures related to landscape management and protected areas. Ecological infrastructure can buffer farmers and rural and urban communities against climate shocks such as droughts and floods, mitigate water pollution and increase water supply, while at the same time protecting biodiversity. Sustainable agriculture also requires a reduction in the nitrogen and phosphorus imbalance to reduce pollution of freshwater systems, groundwater and coastal zones in oceans. Reducing water scarcity requires more efficient water use, increasing water storage and investing in desalination. Ambitious scenarios in the literature typically show higher water- use efficiency rates than in business-as-usual scenarios, but still fail to reach full water security. {22.3.1, 22.3.3, 22.3.4}


Synergies exist between specific measures and a broad range of sustainability targets, including measures related to education, promoting sustainable consumption, specifically a healthy diet and reducing air pollution (well established). Improved education, especially for women and girls, has a particularly strong connection with health outcomes, economic growth, reduced poverty and better environmental management. Meat products require more land than crops (see figure SPM.4). Therefore, promoting sustainable and healthy diets, reducing food waste in both developing and developed countries, and adopting sustainable agricultural practices would contribute towards meeting the nutritional needs of the 9–10 billion people projected to be on the planet in 2050. In doing so, synergies could be realized between improving health and nutrition, while reducing biodiversity loss, advancing habitat restoration and preventing land degradation and water scarcity. Phasing out the use of fossil fuels and moving towards lower-carbon-emission fuels, including sustainable bioenergy, would lead to important co- benefits, achieving both climate and air-quality targets, the latter also having synergies with improving human health, increasing agricultural production and reducing biodiversity loss. {22.4.2}


There are also potential trade-offs between achieving different sustainability targets. Land-based climate change mitigation, namely bioenergy crop production, and agricultural intensification are key measures for achieving climate and food targets respectively, but could have significant detrimental effects on other environmental targets if not managed carefully (well established). While nearly all scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement rely on land-based mitigation measures, their use increases demand for land and could thus have a potentially massive influence on land-use patterns and eventually lead to higher food prices, which would in turn affect food security. Increasing agricultural yields would improve overall food availability and reduce pressure on natural land. Applying unsustainable agriculture practices could lead to land degradation, hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, biodiversity loss and an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. {22.4.2}


20


Summary for Policymakers: Sixth Global Environment Outlook


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