NEWS 1


-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%


Source: GfK


YOU NEED TO KNOW


How summer bookings have ebbed in recent weeks


* Comparison versus strong week in 2018


** Media reports “up to five million flights” at


risk of cancellation if no-deal Brexit


*** Comparison versus ‘Beast from the East’


week in 2018


Season-to-date sales still up but dwindling


Industry analyst GfK reported summer 2019 bookings down 10% year on year for the week to Saturday (March 23), after a 7% decline the previous week. However, the comparison week in 2018 for the former was “very strong” at 18% up on 2017. Season-to-date bookings for summer are now just 1% up on a year ago, with the average selling price not quite 2% up year on year. Winter 2018-19 bookings


Dec 29 Jan 5 Jan 12* Jan 19 Jan 26** Feb 2 Feb 9 Feb 16 Summer 2019 bookings by week, year on year


Feb 23 Mar 2*** Mar 9 Mar 16 Mar 23 Summer 2019 season-to-date bookings


remain 4% up for the season to Saturday and were up 2% in the week to March 23, with the season now almost sold. Bookings for April departures are 13% up on last year. GfK senior client insight


Short-term Brexit delay ‘worst scenario for trade’


Amie Keeley and Lee Hayhurst


A short delay to Brexit would be a “disaster” for this summer’s peak travel period, according to senior industr fiures.


The EU agreed an extension


to either April 12 or May 22 last week, but it appeared increasingly likely the deadline would be pushed back closer to June – the height of the late-booking period. Martin Alcock, owner and director


at The Travel Trade Consultancy, said: “Even a no deal would not be that bad for bookings because at least people would have certainty.” Speaking at a Travelzoo event


last week, he added: “A two-month delay is a disaster. A 10-month delay probably just kicks the can


down the road, but it would save the summer season. A short delay is the worst scenario.” His views were echoed by


Richard Singer, chief executive of Icelolly.com. Speaking at a Travel Weekly Business Breakfast, he said: “If there’s a short extension to May, June or July going into the summer period it will have an elongated knock-on effect. It could get worse. People want clarity.” However, both said there could be


a “Brexit bounce” after a decision. Singer said: “You could expect a mini boom [after clarity on Brexit]. For most companies it’s about being agile and having the ability to react. If only 10 people are looking for holidays today and tomorrow there is a thousand, then you want to have enough marketing and the right activity planned.”


4travelweekly.co.uk28 March 2019


“Even a no deal would not be that bad – at least people would have certainty”


Alcock said: “The economic data


is not terrible. It’s uncertainty, politics, confusion and chaos that’s asing eole to ase  firmly believe there are lots of people out there ready to spend money. “If you had told people in January


that by March 20 we would be no further ahead they would have booked then, but everyone is saying ‘I’m just going to wait’.” Panellists at the Travel Weekly


event reported a drop in demand for European holidays this summer amid Brexit uncertainty and The Travel Network Group


director David Hope said: “Brexit is all over the news and people are holding back awaiting an outcome. If it drags on, there will be people who decide to stay home.” But he added: “Brits will travel if the price is right.”


reported that members’ short-haul revenue during peaks was down 13.6% and passenger numbers down 11% year on year. GfK data shows sales down for


the last two weeks (see bar chart). But industry observers said the economic outlook was largely positive, with employment at an all-time high and household spending up. Emma Jolly, head of partnerships


at Riviera Travel, said the oerators sales were flat year on year, but it was still expecting a bounce “at some point”. She said: “The market is educating people to wait for deals. We are not a discounted product, so that presents a big challenge for us. Everyone is


delaying their decisions.” › Conference report, page 12 › Business Breakfast, back pages


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