Continued from page 34


the proportion of travellers who would choose to fly now compared with pre-lockdown and just 6% intended to book a last-minute flight in August. More promisingly, the


average lead time for booking an overseas holiday was 5.2 months, down from 5 .9 at the start of July and the lowest since lockdown began. The restricted demand was


confirmed by a YouGov poll of more than 2,500 UK adults on July 29 that found just 9% intend holidaying abroad this year compared with 28% intending to take a holiday in the UK. The proportion likely to travel overseas was highest among Londoners at 13%. At the same time, YouGov


polling suggests limited support for relaxing travel restrictions. Asked whether the


government should permit quarantine-free travel to the Balearic and Canary Islands, 47% of 2,500 respondents said ‘no’ against 28% who thought the government should make an exception for the islands. In a separate poll of more


than 3,340 respondents, 56% were ‘unsympathetic’ towards UK holidaymakers caught in Spain by the sudden quarantine requirements and those with Spanish bookings. Only 11% were ‘very sympathetic’ and 26% ‘fairly’. Yet another YouGov poll of 2,000 UK adults found 84% thought quarantine restrictions on Spain were ‘the right decision’. Only 8% thought it ‘wrong’ and half (51%) agreed


‘immediate action was required’. O The YouGov surveys were carried out on July 27-29. BVA BDRC surveyed 1,913 UK adults on July 28-30.


‘Sterling worth more against all major currencies’


Holidaymakers heading abroad are obtaining more for their UK cash than a year ago, according to the Post Office Holiday Money Index. The index shows sterling


stronger year on year against 20 currencies, including the euro, in destinations on the government’s travel corridors list. The pound is stronger now


32 13 AUGUST 2020


Deloitte: Unemployment will affect travel recovery


Ian Taylor


The UK economy is unlikely to see a V-shape recovery and the travel industry’s rebound could be “elongated”, according to Alistair Pritchard, Deloitte lead partner for transportation. Deloitte economists now forecast


the economy will not return to 2019’s level by the end of next year and Pritchard warned rising unemployment could ensure a travel recovery will “take longer”. But he described the industry’s


Alistair Pritchard


restart as “positive” and insisted underlying demand remains strong. Speaking on a Travel Weekly


Roadmap to Recovery webcast, Pritchard said: “You have people who are desperate to get away and those who, for the moment, won’t travel. For those who want to get away, the announcements around Spain and the Canary and Balearic Islands [caused] significant disruption. “But we’ve seen diehard travellers


switch to other destinations such as Greece and Turkey.” He said: “We need to put it in the


context of relatively low numbers and there will be curveballs as destinations move in or out of restrictions, but overall it’s pretty positive.” However, Pritchard suggested


the economic outlook may hinder demand. He said: “It’s unlikely we’ll get a V-shape [recovery] – it will be more elongated and vary from sector to sector. Second-quarter GDP will be down something like 21%. We’re expecting 11% growth in the third quarter, which sounds significant but is not in V-shape territory. “Annually, we’re thinking around a 12% GDP decline for 2020, with 8%-9% [growth] in 2021. That would mean we’re down at the end of 2021.” Pritchard said: “For operators and


agents, airlines and hotel groups, it will be a more elongated recovery.” He warned “furlough unwinding


will have a significant impact”, saying: “We’ll have a lot more people unemployed and that will have an


impact on their ability to travel.” iWebcasts, page 10-11


against 16 holiday currencies than when lockdown began in March, although it has weakened against 13 of them since February when sterling was at its highest this year. Post Office Travel Money reported: “Sterling is worth more against all major holiday currencies than in August 2019.” Perhaps as a consequence, those


who are travelling are buying more currency. The average transaction is up 22% year on year at £423, with the sharpest gain of almost 24% for visitors to Turkey who could have £97 more to spend if changing £500. Those heading to the Caribbean


Sterling is


stronger against 20 currencies


are also considerably better off. In Jamaica, the pound is worth 18% more than last August. Visitors to the eurozone can


expect about £14 more cash than last August on £500.


travelweekly.co.uk


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