BUSINESS NEWS
Iata director general Willie Walsh addresses the association’s AGM in Rio de Janeiro this week
Iata takes stock of Iran war’s oil supply shock
ANALYSIS: Impact to last years but travel demand remains, says Ian Taylor
The exchange of missiles between Israel and Iran as Israel continued to strike Lebanon this week, and the intervention in the Red Sea from Yemen, were stark reminders of the volatility in the region which extends way beyond the control of the US. Hopes of a settlement to end the
crisis and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, now closed for more than 100 days, remain stalled despite the desire of the Trump administration to move on. Iata spelled out the impact on
aviation fuel prices in an updated report on the outlook for global airlines entitled ‘Energy in Crisis’
48 11 JUNE 2026
released at its annual general meeting in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday. It described the current crisis as
“a supply shock without historical precedent – the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”. The report noted: “Jet fuel
availability is threatened, and the price has roughly doubled since late February. Competition for limited supply has intensified, particularly in Europe, the US West Coast and parts of Asia, raising the risk of localised shortages alongside higher costs. “The macroeconomic backdrop is
deteriorating as the energy shock feeds through to inflation, real incomes and consumption. Higher fuel costs, airspace disruptions and longer routeings are weighing on growth.” Yet Iata observed: “Underlying
willingness to travel has not collapsed, only moderated.” This had produced “a material slowdown” in growth “with pronounced regional divergence” but no contraction beyond the Middle East. However, it went on: “The crisis exposes structural fragilities in the
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